Forecasting Surpluses and Shortages in Key Occupations

Abstract

The usual question asked about manpower is whether there is a shortage or a surplus. In projecting future trends, it is frequently more useful to know how the total demand and the total supply will change. In engineering, science, and most of the other professions, the total demand will probably increase as a result of increased need for teachers, emphasis upon research, and industrial production. The total supply will also increase as rising college enrollments are fol lowed by larger graduating classes. Whether, at a particular time, supply will be larger or smaller than demand is difficult to predict, but at least for science and engineering, most pre dictions for the next few years are of shortages. The real usefulness of manpower forecasts is to help guide actions that must be taken now. Consequently, the accuracy that can be usefully employed depends upon the extent to which present actions can be adjusted to projected supply and demand trends. Current accuracy is less than would be desirable. The whole field is in need of better methods of projecting demand trends.