Competition among Violent Islamist Extremists

Abstract

The jihadist threat emanating from the Middle East has transformed dramatically in the past five years due to unprecedented levels of sociopolitical instability. While the region and much of the world around it previously faced a threat dominated by al-Qaeda, developments in the heart of the Middle East since 2014 have given birth to a new and more dangerous dynamic—two international jihadist movements competing to outdo each other on an increasingly brutal and complex world stage. In recent years, al-Qaeda has undergone a consequential strategic evolution: increasingly autonomous affiliates have begun to adopt a patient, long-game approach to operations, while ISIS has sought to attain rapid results. As two divergent models of jihad develop, different threats result, with the one universal factor being the exploitation of political failure, failing states, and sociopolitical instability to further extremist narratives. It is now more important than ever to develop tailor-made policies designed not just to combat jihadism itself but to ameliorate underlying conditions that have allowed it to thrive.