Abstract
Nicholas Kerr's recent book, Electoral Commissions and Democratization in Africa: Everyday Production of Democratic Legitimacy, provides an insightful contribution to the fields of comparative politics and African studies. Drawing on over fifteen years of research, Kerr addresses a fundamental paradox of modern democratic politics: while elections are the primary mechanism for selecting representatives, the process of counting ballots is a bureaucratic endeavour often conducted beyond the immediate view of citizens. Bureaucrats who oversee this process are often appointed and may not represent the will of the people since they are not elected. These bureaucrats may have biases that influence the post-electoral process of translating votes into seats. This book places electoral commissions (ECs) at the heart of democratisation in Africa, and particularly Nigeria, arguing that their institutional performance is crucial to determining the quality and legitimacy of elections.
The central premise of Kerr's theory is that ECs matter because they provide vital information to political elites and citizens, enabling them to resolve strategic uncertainties encountered during the electoral cycle. These uncertainties fall into two distinct categories: incumbent electoral fraud and administrative irregularities. The theoretical contribution rests on distinguishing between two dimensions of EC institutionalisation that are uniquely correlated with these uncertainties.
Kerr defines EC autonomy as an institution's ability to operate independently of the executive and other state/societal actors. High autonomy signals greater potential costs for incumbents trying to commit fraud and helps to resolve uncertainties related to electoral manipulation. This means that the EC does not succumb to the whims of individual politicians or listen to their directives as it relates to the management of elections.
He refers to the financial, human, technological, and organisational resources needed to fulfil the EC's mandate effectively and efficiently. High capacity resolves the uncertainty associated with administrative problems and irregularities. High-capacity ECs can perform their functions effectively and are expected to enjoy high respect from the public.
This distinction leads to a four-type typology of institutionalisation, classifying ECs as institutionalised (high autonomy/capacity, e.g. post-2000 Ghana or South Africa), partially institutionalised (low A/high C, e.g. post-2003 Rwanda; or high A/low C, e.g. post-1999 Nigeria), or non-institutionalised (low A/C, e.g. post-2000 Zimbabwe). The book demonstrates that highly institutionalised ECs are the most effective in promoting election quality and legitimacy because they reduce doubts regarding fraud and administrative irregularities.
Kerr employs a mixed-methods approach to test his theory across sub-Saharan Africa since the 1990s, because of the significant cross-national and over-time variation in autonomy and capacity of ECs during this period. Firstly, he relies on cross-national and over-time analyses using data from sources like the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and the Afrobarometer. He uses data from V-Dem to measure the autonomy and capacity of ECs across Africa and the Afrobarometer to understand public opinion in ECs. In a second set of analysis, he focuses on an in-depth case study of Nigeria (1999–2019), an important case because its Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has experienced significant over-time and sub-national variation in performance. In particular, the Nigerian analysis uses original data from a post-election survey of 353 parliamentary candidates and a post-election survey of Nigerian voters (conducted in 2015 and 2019). Kerr argues that demonstrating the impact of ECs in Nigeria, a country marked by deep cultural cleavages, violence, widespread corruption, and weak institutions, is “very good news for the rest of the continent” (p. 22).
The book's findings are divided across political elites (Chapters 4 and 5) and citizens (Chapters 6 and 7), showing how actors use EC autonomy and capacity to guide their behaviour and attitudes.
Cross-national analysis shows that high EC autonomy significantly reduces the likelihood of opposition parties engaging in pre-election boycotts. This shows that opposition parties prioritise certainty regarding incumbent fraud when deciding to participate. They participate when they know beforehand that the incumbent will not rig the elections in their favour. Conversely, EC capacity is the primary determinant of losers’ consent (willingness to accept election results) in the post-election phase. Losers often leverage low capacity (e.g. inadequate voter registration, slow results announcement) to mobilise post-election challenges.
The Nigerian case study further refines these findings by focusing on the sub-national level, showing that parliamentary candidates’ trust in INEC and perceptions of election quality depend crucially on the perceived impartiality of state-level INEC officials (autonomy) and the operational efficiency of election day technology (capacity), such as the Smart Card Readers. Opposition losers who observed high local autonomy and capacity were the most likely group to report increased trust in INEC.
Kerr demonstrates that the informational theory applies equally to mass behaviour, arguing that citizens are “taking cues from ECs” (p. 25). Nationally, high EC autonomy and capacity are positively correlated with citizens’ trust in ECs, positive perceptions of election quality, and higher reported voter turnout.
A significant finding is the differential impact of the two dimensions; EC capacity is generally more important to the average citizen when determining perceptions of trust and election quality. This is because capacity is often easier for citizens to observe or experience directly. However, the book suggests that opposition supporters and politically aware citizens are more responsive to both autonomy and capacity when forming attitudes. High EC autonomy and capacity significantly narrow partisan gaps in institutional trust and quality perceptions.
The analysis on Nigerian voters shows the critical nature of everyday legitimacy, showing that negative local experiences, such as long queues, malfunctioning voting equipment, or officials facilitating ballot fraud, severely damage perceptions of election credibility and discourage intentions to vote in future elections.
This book challenges single-dimensional approaches to studying electoral administration by consistently showing that distinguishing autonomy from capacity provides richer empirical insight. Kerr shows how institutionalised ECs contribute to democratic consolidation by reducing incumbent fraud, boosting opposition, and mass participation, and incentivising losers to comply with electoral outcomes. The book concludes with crucial policy recommendations, calling on election stakeholders, African governments, technical assistance providers (such as the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, IFES), and EU officials, to prioritise capacity building, safeguard institutional autonomy, and promote strategic partnerships to enhance the legitimacy of the EC. The focus on administrative failures, such as malfunctioning voter ID machines, provides a reminder that even seemingly minor technical issues can undermine democratic legitimacy.
