Abstract
In the past decade, profound tectonic shifts in the global population dynamics have placed African demography at the forefront of scholarly attention, reigniting interest in population issues. Despite declining fertility rates worldwide, the rate of decline in Africa has been comparatively sluggish. Consequently, Africa's population growth stands significantly higher than the global average (2.5 per cent per year compared to 1 per cent), presenting consequential implications for the continent's prospects of economic development and for the global economy.
Within this context, numerous authors and pundits have predicted apocalyptic scenarios for Africa, encompassing all sorts of catastrophes such as increased poverty, famine, war, or ecological devastation. The title of Edward Paice's book, Youthquake, may initially suggest a continuation of this catastrophist tradition, as initiated by Paul Erlich in 1968 with The Population Bomb. However, Youthquake deviates from such deterministic and neo-Malthusian perspectives, providing a rigorous academic analysis firmly grounded in empirical data.
Paice's book begins by offering a quantitative overview of the current state of population growth in Africa and the disparities between Africa and the rest of the world. The author effectively explores in these initial chapters the historical approaches to population growth in developing countries, highlighting the influence of apocalyptic narratives in the 1960s and 1970s. In the West, the predominance of these narratives, which were impregnated with certain racism and aporophobia, had the immediate effect of making international aid conditional on the adoption of birth control policies, especially in Asia and Latin America. In contrast, there were many African voices, such as that of Cheikh Anta Diop, who argued that one of the continent's weaknesses was its sparse population, thus advocating for a population increase.
In the following chapters, from 5 to 7, Paice delves into the canonical theory of demographic transition and examines various hypotheses that explain the slow decline of fertility rates in Africa. The author critically analyses the quality of available demographic data, with a focus on the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) as the primary source. The book successfully challenges the notion of a uniform demographic transition pattern across Africa, emphasising the continent's regional variations. Another interesting point Paice makes in this part of the book is the need to analyse the different casuistries in different parts of the continent to refute the simplistic idea of African exceptionalism.
The author then explores in detail the factors explaining the different patterns of population growth in the continent, emphasising the specific role of women and education, in chapters 8 to 13. It is in this part of the book that Paice's emphasis on the use of statistics and the presentation of data in tables and graphs is most evident. Indeed, the use of data to corroborate the claims made is constant and is a hallmark of the work. However, it should be noted that this empirical approach may neglect a more in-depth discussion, perhaps sociological or anthropological, regarding why fertility remains high in many parts of Africa.
Chapters 14 to 16 address the question of the relationship between population growth and economic development on the continent, and here the reader grasps the essence of the book's title: “Each year during the 2020s, more than 25 million young Africans will reach the age of 15 and be defined as ‘working age’” (p. 233). Indeed, the great challenge for African economies is the massive creation of employment opportunities for these millions of young people entering the labour market. One of the most striking facts presented in the book is that, from the 2030s onwards, Africa is estimated to be the only region in the world where the available labour force will grow, while the rest, even developing Asia, will experience a decline. Based on this fact, the overly optimistic Africa Rising narrative popularised at the beginning of this century highlighted the potential to harness the demographic dividend provided by a young population. However, the author reminds us that the harsh reality of youth unemployment and the challenges facing African economies in creating jobs in such high proportions do not allow for such optimism.
Chapter 17, titled “Grand Designs,” is perhaps the most outstanding and sums up the vision that the author has sought to convey throughout the text. In this chapter, Paice rejects the doomsday narrative of increasing conflict, forced migration, and ecological collapse in Africa due to population growth. He argues that “There is a need to handle with care narratives that mitigate the relative certainty over a few decades of demographic projections for Africa with catastrophic predictions and demographic determinism” (p. 278). He further emphasizes the need for more knowledge, stating that “Detail is the antidote to generalization” (p. 282).
The last chapter, significantly entitled “A Luta Continua!,” provides brilliant advice to those who want to research or comment on African demography. First, the author points to the need for perspective and humility, stating that the “‘Vast ignorance’ of the African past (and present) often hinders contemplation of alternative futures envisioned by foreign institutions and commentators” (p. 298). He then warns that “fortunes and narratives can change very rapidly” (p. 298) and concludes the chapter by noting that despite Africa's centrality in the global political economy in the twenty-first century due to population growth, the continent is barely represented in global narratives.
The reviewed edition of the book includes an exhaustive and helpful 17-page bibliography. It also contains a postscript with some interesting insights about the 2022 Revision of the UNPD's World Population Prospects. Interestingly, Paice notes that in this Revision, the estimated median age for the African population is 18.6 years, lower than the 2020 estimation. From this perspective, the title of the book makes perfect sense.
In sum, Youthquake is an excellent and rigorous introduction to the current lively debate on the relationship between population growth and the developmental prospects of Africa. This debate is crucial for anyone interested in the political economy of African development and its impact on the global economy.
Artur Colom-Jaén Department of Economic History, Institutions, Policy and World Economy University of Barcelona, Spain