Comparison of a new predictive model with other critical scores for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with pneumonia-related bacteremia

Abstract

Prediction of mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia is necessary for providing timely care and treatment. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram and compare it with Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III), Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score (Brighton PEWS) and Pediatric Critical Illness Score (PCIS), which are widely used in predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia. This retrospective study collected clinical data of hospitalized children with pneumonia-related bacteremia in Chongqing, China (January 2013–May 2019). The nomogram was built using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The nomogram was compared with PRISM III, PEWS and PCIS in accuracy and clinical benefits in predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia. A total of 242 children were included. The nomogram including time to first positivity of blood cultures (TTFP), serum albumin (ALB) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram was 0.84 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.91) in the training set and 0.82 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.93) in the validating set. Good consistency was observed between the predictions and the actual observations, and the decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. The results showed that the nomogram significantly performed better than the three critical scores. In conclusion, a nomogram-illustrated model incorporating TTFP, ALB and LDH for predicting in-hospital mortality in children with pneumonia-related bacteremia at the early stage was established and validated. It performed better than PRISM III, PEWS and PCIS.