Labor force trends up to 2025 for the fifteen countries (before May 1, 2004) of the European Community are examined. Will demographic decline have an early effect on manpower volume? An estimation is made to determine whether present migratory flow levels in these countries will be sufficient to counter labor force stagnation. Manpower trend scenarios are proposed for each country. They show highly contrasting situations. These countries favor different policies for mobilizing and increasing their manpower volume. There is wide divergence between the various EU countries as concerns their demographic situation and labor force participation rate as well as their social security systems. Considering these highly diverse national characteristics, the difficulty in arriving at a consensus on EU migratory policy harmonization is stressed.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BagavosC., and FotakisC.2001“Demographic Dimension of Labour Force Trends: National and Regional Diversities within the European Union,”Genus, 57(1): 83–107.
2.
BauerT. R., Haisken-DenewJ. P., and SchmidtC.2003“International Labour Migration, Economic Growth and Labour Markets: The Current State of Affairs.” In European Population Forum 2004.Geneva: UNECE and UNPF.
3.
BlanchetD.2002“Immigration et Avenir Démographique.” In Immigration, Marché du Travail et Integration. Ed. HéranF.Paris: Commissariat Généralan Plan, La Documentation Française. Pp. 354–365
4.
BurniauxJ.-M., DuvalR., and JaumotteF.2004“Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy options on Future Labour Supply in OECD countries.” OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 371, ECO/WKP(2003)25.
5.
ColemanD.2000“Who's Afraid of Low Support Ratios, A UK Response to the UN Population Division Report on ‘Replacement Migration’ in Expert Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline,”New York: United Nations, UN/POP/PRA/2000/15.3.
6.
ColemanD., and RowthornR.2004“The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom,”Population and Development Review, 30(4): 579–624.
7.
Commission of the European Communities2005Green Paper on an EU Approach to Managing Economic Migration. Brussels. Commission of the European Communities, 11.1.2005, COM(2004)811 final.
8.
Commission of the European Communities2001 Brussels Communication COM(2001)387.
9.
CoppelJ., DumontJ.-C., and ViscoI.2001“Trends in Immigration and Economic Consequences.” Economic Department Working Papers No. 284, OECD,ECO/WKP/2001,10.
10.
De JongA., and BroekmanR.2000“National and Regional Trends in the Labour Force in the European Union, 1985–2050.” Eurostat, Population and Social Conditions, Working Paper, 3/2000/E/No.13.
11.
De JongA., and VisserH.1997“Long Term International Migration Scenarios for the European Economic Area.” Eurostat, Population and Social Conditions, Working Paper E4/1997–6.
12.
DoudeijnsM., and DumontJ.-C.2003“Immigration and Labour Shortages: Evaluation of Needs and Limits of Selection Policies in the Recruitment of Foreign Labour.” OECD, The Economic and Social Aspects of Migration. Conference jointly organized by the European Commission and the OECD. Brussels. January 21–22, 2003.
13.
European Commission2003Employment in Europe 2003 – Recent Trends and Prospects.Luxembourg: Directorate General for Employment and Social Affairs.
14.
European Commission2002Employment in Europe 2002 – Recent Trends and Prospects.Luxembourg: Directorate General for Employment and Social Affairs.
15.
European Commission2000Employment in Europe 2000.Luxembourg: Directorate General for Employment and Social Affairs.
16.
EUROSTAT
17.
Annual Labour Force Surveys. Eurostat: Luxembourg.
18.
FeldS.2005“Les Migrations Internationales de Travail et les Objectifs d'Emploi de l'Union Européenne pour 2010.” In Les Migrations Internationales: Observation, Analyse et Perspectives. Ed. by Aidelf.
19.
FeldS.2000“Active Population Growth and Immigration Hypotheses in Western Europe,”European Journal of Population, 16: 3–40.
20.
FotakisC.2003“Demographic Ageing, Migration and the Challenge for the Labour Market and Pensions.”OCDE: The Economic and Social Aspects of Migration. Conference jointly organized by the European Commission and the OECD, Brussels, January 21–23.
21.
FotakisC.2000“Demographic Ageing, Employment Growth and Pensions Sustainability in the EU: The Option of Migration.” Expert Group Meeting on Policies Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline, New York: U.N. UN/POP/PRA/2000/21. Oct. 16–18.
22.
GrinblatJ.-A.2003“Des Scénarios d'Immigration pour une Europe Vieillissante,”Esprit, 300: 92–101. December.
23.
HéranF.2002Immigration, Marché du Travail et Intégration.Paris: Commissariat Général au Plan, La Documentation Française.
24.
International Monetary Fund2004“How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy,”World Economic Outlook, Ch. 3. Surveys. Pp. 138–180.
25.
LesthaegheR.2000“Europe's Demographic Issues: Fertility, Household Formation and Replacement Migration.” Expert Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline. New York: U.N. UN/POP/PRA/2000/20.
26.
McDonaldP., and KippenR.2001“Labour Supply Prospects in 16 Developed Countries, 2000–2050,”Population and Development Review, 27(1): 1–32.
27.
OECD2003Employment Outlook 2003 – Towards More and Better Jobs.OECD.
28.
OECD2002Employment Outlook 2002 – Surveying the Jobs Horizon.OECD.
29.
OECD2000Employment Outlook 2000 – Rewarding Work.OECD.
30.
SaltJ.2003“Current Trends in International Migration in Europe.” Report to the Council of Europe. Unpubl.
31.
SchererP.2002“Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries,”Labour Market and Social Policy. Occasional Papers, No. 49, OECD.
32.
SOPEMI2003Tendances des Migrations Internationales, Rapport annuel 2003. Paris: OECD.
33.
SOPEMI2002Tendances des Migrations Internationales, Rapport annuel 2002. Paris: OECD.
34.
United Nations2004“World Economic and Social Survey 2004, International Migration.” Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York: U.N. E/2004/75/Rev.1/Add.1-ST/ESA/291/Add.1.
35.
United Nations2003a World Population Prospect, The 2002 Revision. Volume I, Comprehensive Tables. New York: U.N. ST/ESA/SER.A/222.
36.
United Nations2003b Long Range Population Projections.New York: U.N. ESA/P/WP.186. August.
37.
United Nations2000Replacement Migration.New York: U.N. Population Division. ESA/P/W.P.160.
38.
United Nations n.d. Meeting on Policy Responses to Population Ageing and Population Decline.New York: U.N. UN/POP/PRA/2000/15.-3.
39.
ZlotnikH.1998“International Migration 1965–1996,”Population and Development Review, 24(3): 429–468.
