The relative predictive accuracy of humans and statistical models has long been the subject of controversy even though models have demonstrated superior performance in many studies. We propose that relative performance depends on the amount of contextual information available and whether it is distributed symmetrically to humans and models. Given their different strengths, human and statistical predictions can be profitably combined to improve prediction.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BlattbergR.C.HochS.J. (1990). Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model + 50% manager. Management Science, 36, 887–899.
2.
BraunP.A.YanivI. (1992). A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 217–231.
ChiM.T.H.GlaserR.FairM. (1988). The nature of expertiseHillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
5.
ClemenR.T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559–583.
6.
ClemenR.T.MurphyA.H. (1986). Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Statistical analyses of some interrelationships. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 56–65.
7.
DawesR.M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571–582.
8.
EinhornH.J.HogarthR.M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 171–192.
9.
EinhornH.J.HogarthR.M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395–416.
10.
GenestC.ZidekJ.V. (1986). Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography. Statistical Science, 1, 114–148.
11.
GriffinD.TverskyA. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411–435.
12.
HogarthR.M. (1989). On combining diagnostic ‘forecasts’: Thoughts and some evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 593–597.
13.
KahnemanD.TverskyA. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237–251.
14.
KerenG.WagenaarW.A. (1987). Temporal aspects of probabilistic forecasts. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 25, 61–64.
15.
KleinmuntzB. (1990). Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: Toward an integrative approach. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 296–310.
16.
MayznerM.S.TresseltM.E.WolinB.R. (1965). Tables of pentagram frequency counts for various word-length and letter-position combinations. Psychonomic Monograph Supplements, 1, 145–185.
17.
McClellandJ.L.RumelhartD.E. (1981). An interactive model of context effects in letter perception: Part 1. An account of basic findings. Psychological Review, 88, 375–407.
18.
McNeesS.K. (1990). The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 287–299.
19.
MeehlP.E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and a review of the evidenceMinneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
20.
SawyerJ. (1966). Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. Psychological Bulletin, 66, 178–200.
21.
YanivI.YatesJ.F.SmithJ.E.K. (1991). Measures of discrimination skill in probabilistic judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 611–617.