Abstract
The possible effect of by-elections on this Government, and future governments with small majorities, is considered, concentrating on by-elections forced on governments through the death of their MPs. Based on the current age structure of the Conservative party in parliament and previous mortality rates among MPs, it is speculated that the Government will have had seven by-elections forced on it by the next election. More serious problems exist for a future Labour Government elected with a similar majority, since Labour MPs seem to die more frequently than Conservatives: over 50% more Labour MPs than Conservatives have died since 1964. This does not seem to be caused by the age structure of the PLP nor the MPs' former occupations. Both the very limited correlation between age and marginality of MPs and the different electoral geography of the parties are discussed, and found to have very little effect on the potential by-elections.
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