The central issue of this paper is that one can develop emergent macro-dynamics from micro agent models and that the resulting models fall very much in the complexity-chaos line of the development of theory. The core theoretical contribution is a presentation of a clear, sensical, and potentially very powerful architecture for developing algorithms for the embedding of levels—the so-called master equation approach—and its comparison with alternative architectures. Finally, to illustrate the strategy and to demonstrate that the approach produces interesting and useful results, we give an application: a multilevel simulation model of military coups d'état, which is tested using data from Thailand between 1932 and 1992.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AjzenI.FishbeinM.. 1980. Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
2.
AlbertAlain, ed. 1995. Chaos and Society. Amsterdam: Presses de l'Université du Québec.
3.
AlexanderJeffrey C.GiesenB.. 1987. “From Reduction to Linkage: The Long View of the Micro-Macro Debate.” Pp. 1–42 in The Micro-Macro Link, edited by AlexanderJeffrey C. et.al., Berkeley: University of California Press.
4.
AlexanderJeffrey C.GiesenBernardMünchRichardSmelserNeil J., eds. 1987. The Micro-Macro Link. Berkeley: University of California Press.
5.
ArcherM.1988. Culture and Agency. The Place of Culture in Social Theory. London: Cambridge University Press.
6.
BagozziRichard P.1992. “The Self-Regulation of Attitudes, Intentions, and Behavior.”Social Psychology Quarterly55:178–204.
7.
BungeMario. 1979. Treatise on Basic Philosophy. Vol. 4. Ontology II. A World of Systems. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Reidel.
8.
CallonM.LatourB.. 1981. “Unscrewing the Big Leviathan: How Actors Macro-Structure Reality and How Sociologists Help Them To Do So.” Pp. 277–303 in Advances in Social Theory and Methodology, edited by Knorr-CetinaK.CicourelA.. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
9.
CarleyK. M.1990. “Group Stability. A Socio-Cognitive Approach.” Pp. 1–44 in Advances in Group Processes, edited by LawlerE.MarkovskyB.RidgewayC.WalkerH.. Greenwich, CT: JAI.
10.
CarleyK. M.1991a. “Designing Organizational Structures to Cope with Communication Breakdowns.”Industrial Crisis Quarterly5:19–57.
11.
CarleyK. M.1991b. “A Theory of Group Stability.”American Sociological Review5:331–54.
12.
CarleyK. M.1992. “Organizational Learning and Personnel Turnover.”Organization Science3:2–46.
13.
CarleyK. M.Kjaer-HansenJ.NewellA.PrietulaM.. 1992. “Plural-Soar. A Prolegomenon to Artificial Agents and Organizational Behavior.” Pages 87–118 in Artificial Intelligence in Organization and Management Theory, edited by MasuchM.WarglienM.. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
14.
ChattoeEdmundSaamNicole J.MöhringMichael. Forthcoming. “Sensitivity Analysis in the Social Sciences: Problems and Prospects.” In Social Science Microsimulation: Tools for Modeling, Parameter Optimization, and Sensitivity Analysis, edited by GilbertG. N.MuellerU.SuleimanR.TroitzschK. G.. Berlin: Springer.
15.
CicourelA.1981. “Notes on the Integration of Micro- and Macro-Levels of Analysis.” Pp. 51–80 in Advances in Social Theory and Methodology, edited by Knorr-CetinaK.CicourelA.. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
16.
CohenM. D.1986. “Artificial Intelligence and the Dynamic Performance of Organizational Designs.” Pp. 53–71 in Ambiguity and Command: Organizational Perspectives on Military Decision Making, edited by MarchJ. G.Weissinger-BaylonR.Marshfield, MA: Pitman.
17.
CollinsRandall. 1981. “Micro-Translations as Theory-Building Strategy.” Pp. 81–108 in Advances in Social Theory and Methodology, edited by Knorr-CetinaK.CicourelA.. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.
18.
CollinsRandall. 1988. Theoretical Sociology. San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
19.
ConteRosariaGilbertNigel. 1995. “Computer Simulation for Social Theory.” Pp. 1–15 in Artificial Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Life, edited by GilbertNigelConteRosaria. London: UCL Press.
20.
ConverseP.1964. “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Public.” Pp. 1–15 in Ideology and Discontent, edited by ApterD. E.. New York: Free Press.
21.
CouclelisH.1985. “Cellular Worlds: A Framework for Modeling Micro-Macro Dynamics.”Environment and Planning17:585–96.
22.
CrespiI.1988. Pre-Election Polling. New York: Russel Sage Foundation.
23.
DahlRobert A.1982. Dilemmas of Pluralist Democracy. New Haven/London: Yale University Press.
24.
DiPreteThomas A.ForristalJerry D.. 1994. “Multilevel Models: Methods and Substance.”Annual Review of Sociology20:331–57.
25.
FinerSamuel Edward. 1962. The Man on Horseback: The Role of Military in Politics. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.
26.
FinerSamuel Edward. 1976. The Man on Horseback: The Role of Military in Politics, 2d ed.Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.
27.
FlacheAndreasMacyMichael M.. 1996. “The Weakness of Strong Ties: Collective Action Failure in a Highly Cohesive Group.”Journal of Mathematical Sociology21:3–28.
28.
GiddensA.1984. The Constitution of Society: Outline of the Theory of Structuration. Cambridge, England: Polity Press.
29.
GilbertNigel. 1995. “Emergence in Social Simulation.” Pp. 144–56 in Artificial Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Life, edited by GilbertNigelConteRosaria. London: UCL Press.
30.
GilbertNigelDoranJim, eds. 1994. Simulating Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Phenomena. London: UCL Press.
31.
HakenHermann. 1978. Synergetics. An Introduction. Berlin: Springer.
HannemanRobert A.1988. Computer Assisted Theory Building: Modeling Dynamic Social Systems. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
34.
HannemanRobert A.CollinsRandallMordtGabriele. 1995. “Discovering Theory Dynamics by Computer Simulation: Experiments on State Legitimacy and Imperialist Capitalism.”Sociological Methodology25:1–46.
35.
HarrisonJ. R.CarrolG. R.. 1991. “Keeping the Faith: A Model of Cultural Transmission in Formal Organizations.”Administration Science Quarterly36:552–82.
36.
HeilJohn. 1996. “The Propositional Attitudes.”Protosoziologie8–9:53–67.
37.
HelbingDirk. 1992a. “A Mathematical Model for Attitude Formation by Pair Interactions.”Behavioral Science37:190–214.
38.
HelbingDirk. 1992b. “A Fluid-Dynamic Model for the Movement of Pedestrians.”Complex Systems6:391–415.
HelbingDirk. 1994. “A Mathematical Model for the Behavior of Individuals in a Social Field.”Journal of Mathematical Sociology19:189–219.
41.
HoxJoop J.KreftIta G. G.. 1994. “Multilevel Analysis Methods.”Sociological Methods and Research22:283–99.
42.
HuberJoan, ed. 1991. Macro-Micro Linkages in Sociology. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
43.
HuntingtonSamuel B.1957. The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
44.
HuntingtonSamuel B.1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
45.
HuntingtonSamuel B.1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
46.
IyengarS.McGuireW. J., eds. 1992. Explorations in Political Psychology. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
47.
JackmanRobert W.O'KaneR. H. T.JohnsonT. H.McGowanP.SlaterR. O.. 1986. “Explaining African Coups d'Etat.”American Political Science Review80:225–49.
48.
JenkinsJ. CraigKposowaAugustine J.. 1990. “Explaining Military Coups d'Etat, Black Africa 1957–84.”American Sociological Review55:861–75.
49.
JenkinsJ. CraigKposowaAugustine J.. 1992. “The Political Origins of African Military Coups: Ethnic Competition, Military Centrality, and the Struggle Over the Postcolonial State.”International Studies Quarterly36:271–92.
50.
JohnsonThomas H.SlaterRobert O.McGowanPat1984. “Explaining African Military Coups d'Etat, 1960–1982.”American Political Science Review78:622–40.
51.
KauferDavid S.CarleyKathleen M.. 1993. Communication at a Distance: The Influence of Print on Sociocultural Organization and Change. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
52.
KielDouglas L.ElliottEuel. 1996. Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
53.
KposowaAugustine J.CraigJenkins J.. 1993. “The Structural Sources of Military Coups in Postcolonial Africa, 1957–1984.”American Journal of Sociology99:126–63.
54.
KrohnWolfgangKüppersGünter. 1992. Emergenz. Die Entstehung von Ordnung, Organisation und Bedeutung. Frankfurt/M, Germany: Suhrcamp.
55.
LairdJ.NewellA.RosenbloomP.. 1987. “SOAR: An Architecture for General Intelligence.”Artificial Intelligence33:1–64.
MarkovskyBarry. 1987. “Toward Multilevel Sociological Theories: Simulations of Actor and Network Effects.”Sociological Theory5:101–17.
58.
MasuchM.LaPotinP.1989. “Beyond Garbage Cans. An AI Model of Organizational Choice.”Administration Science Quarterly34:38–67.
59.
MayntzRenate. 1990. “The Influence of Natural Science Theories on Contemporary Social Sciences.” Köln: MPIFG Discussion Paper 90/7.
60.
McBroomWilliam H.ReedFred W.. 1992. “Toward a Reconceptualization of Attitude-Behavior Consistency.”Social Psychology Quarterly55:205–16.
61.
McGowanPatJohnsonThomas H.. 1984. “African Military Coups d'Etat and Underdevelopment: A Quantitative Historical Analysis.”Journal of Modern African Studies22:633–66.
62.
MillJohn Stuart. 1965 (1843). A System of Logic. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill.
63.
MöhringMichael. 1990. “MIMOSE: Eine funktionale Sprache zur Beschreibung und Simulation individuellen Verhaltens in interagierenden Populationen.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Koblenz, Germany.
64.
MöhringMichael. 1996. “Social Science Multilevel Simulation with MIMOSE.” Pp. 123–37 in Social Science Microsimulation, edited by TroitzschKlaus G.MuellerUlrichNigelGilbert G.DoranJim. Berlin: Springer.
65.
MöhringM.StrotmannV.FlacheA.. 1994. “MIMOSE: Eine funktionale Sprache zur Beschreibung und Simulation individuellen Verhaltens in interagierenden Populationen. Einführung in die Modellierung.”University of Koblenz, Germany. Unpublished manuscript.
66.
MoscoviciS.1963. “Attitudes and Opinions.”Annual Review of Psychology14:231–60.
67.
MünchBernardSmelserNeil J.. 1987. “Relating the Micro and Macro.” Pp. 356–87 in The Micro-Macro Link, edited by Alexander et.al.Berkeley: University of California Press.
68.
Noelle-NeumannE.1984. The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion—Our Social Skin. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
69.
NowakA.LatanéB.1994. “Simulating the Emergence of Social Order from Individual Behavior.” Pp. 63–84 in Simulating Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Phenomena, edited by GilbertNigelDoranJim. London: UCL Press.
70.
NowakA.LewensteinMacicj. 1996. “Modeling Social Change with Cellular Automata.” Pp. 249–85 in Modeling and Simulation in the Social Sciences from the Philosophy of Science Point of View, edited by HegselmannR.MuellerU.TroitzschK. G.. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer.
71.
NowakA.SzamrejJ.LatanéB.1990. “From Private Attitude to Public Opinion: Dynamic Theory of Social Impact.”Psychological Review97:362–76.
72.
O'KaneRosemary H. T.1987. The Likelihood of Coups. Aldershot: Avebury.
73.
O'KaneRosemary H. T.1993. “Coups d'Etat in Africa. A Political Economy Approach.”Journal of Peace Research30:251–70.
74.
PestelloH.FrancesG.PestelloFred P.. 1991. “Ignored, Neglected, and Abused: The Behavior Variable in Attitude-Behavior Research.”Symbolic Interaction14:341–51.
75.
PratkanisA. R.BreeklerS. J.GreenwaldA. G.. 1989. Attitude Structure and Function. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
76.
RiggsFred W.1979. “The Bureaucratic Polity as a Working System.” Pp. 356–74 in Modern Thai Politics: From Village to Nation, edited by NeherClark D.. Cambridge, MA: Schenkman.
77.
RiggsFred W.1981. “Cabinet Ministers and Coup Groups. The Case of Thailand.”International Political Science Review2:159–88.
78.
RothG.1986. “Selbstorganisation—Selbsterhaltung—Selbstreferentialität. Prinzipien der Organisation der Lebewesen und ihre Folgen für die Beziehung zwischen Organismus und Umwelt.” Pp. 149–80 in Selbstorganisation. Die Entstehung von Ordnung in Natur und Gesellschaft, edited by DressA.HendrichsH.KüppersG.Munich, Germany: Piper.
79.
SaamNicole J.1995. Computergestützte Theoriekonstruktion in den Sozialwissenschaften. Konzeptbasierte Simulation eines theoretischen Modells am Beispiel militärischer Staatsstreiche in Thailand. Unter Anwendung des Mehrebenen-Ansatzes der Synergetik. San Diego, CA, and Erlangen, Germany: Society for Computer Simulation International.
80.
SaamNicole J.1996. “Multilevel Modeling with MIMOSE: Experience from a Social Science Application.” Pp. 138–54 in Social Science Microsimulation, edited by TroitzschKlaus G.MuellerUlrichNigelGilbert G.DoranJim. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
81.
ScottJames C.1972. “Patron-Client Politics and Political Change in Southeast Asia.”American Political Science Review66:91–113.
82.
StewartI.1989. Does God Play Dice? The Mathematics of Chaos. Oxford, England: Basil Blackwell.
83.
SuppesPatrick. 1968. “The Desirability of Formalization in Science.”Journal of Philosophy65:24–39.
84.
TroitzschKlaus G.1990. “Self-Organisation in Social Systems.” Pp. 353–77 in Computer Aided Sociological Research, edited by GladitzJohannesTroitzschKlaus G.. Berlin, Germany: Akademie Verlag.
85.
TroitzschKlaus G.1996. “Multilevel Simulation.” Pp. 107–22 in Social Science Microsimulation, edited by TroitzschKlaus G.MuellerUlrichNigelGilbert G.DoranJim. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
86.
TurnerJ. H.1988. A Theory of Social Interaction. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
87.
WeidlichWolfgang. 1991. “Physics and Social Science: The Approach of Synergetics.”Physics Reports204:1–163.
88.
WeidlichWolfgang. 1994. “Synergetic Modeling Concepts for Sociodynamics with Application to Collective Political Opinion Formation.”Journal of Mathematical Sociology18:267–91.
89.
WeidlichWolfgangHaagGünter, eds. 1983. Concepts and Models of a Quantitative Sociology: The Dynamics of Interacting Populations. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
90.
WeidlichWolfgangHaagGünter, eds. 1988. Interregional Migration: Dynamic Theory and Comparative Analysis. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
91.
WhickerMarciaSigelmanLee. 1991. Computer Simulation Applications: An Introduction. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
92.
WileyNorbert. 1988. “The Micro-Macro Problem in Social Theory.”Sociological Theory6:254–61.
93.
YamaguchiKazuo. 1996. “Power in Networks of Substitutable and Complementary Exchange Relations: A Rational-Choice Model and an Analysis of Power Centralization.”American Sociological Review61:308–32.
