A stochastic model for the time to awaken in response to a fire alarm is developed, based on a model originally developed by Ratcliff and Murdock in 1976 for analyzing two-choice decisions. It is mathematically identical to the classical “gambler’s ruin problem.” The model is fitted to two sets of data due to Bruck and her colleagues and validated by visual and statistical means. The model can be used to predict high quantiles of the awakening time, an essential component of the total time to escape, needed to evaluate the risk of death in a compartment fire.
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