Abstract
Abstract
The safety records of crewed spacecraft (Space Shuttle, Soyuz) are compared with the safety records of various common terrestrial transportation modalities (automotive, rail, boating, general aviation, commercial aviation) and select adventure sport activities (skydiving, mountaineering, SCUBA diving). Raw fatality and exposure data for each activity are reviewed and then amalgamated as six different rate metrics (fatal accidents per vehicle-trip, fatal accidents per vehicle-mile, fatal accidents per vehicle-hour, fatalities per person-trip, fatalities per person-mile, and fatalities per person-hour). The results indicate that, for the periods reviewed, spaceflight was the riskiest activity (or one of the riskiest activities) in four of the six metrics (fatal accidents per vehicle-trip, fatal accidents per vehicle-hour, fatalities per person-trip, and fatalities per person-hour). However, spaceflight was calculated to be less risky than automobiles, general aviation, and rail transportation on a fatal accidents per vehicle-mile basis, and it was roughly comparable to climbing Mt. Everest on a fatalities per person-trip basis. These conflicting results suggest that relative safety records alone are ambiguous, and they may not be a wholly representative means of communicating risk to prospective spaceflight participants.
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