Abstract
This study investigates the intricate relationship between rainfall patterns, temperature variations, and food security in the Gibe III Dam watershed of southern Ethiopia. The study includes a household survey of 384 respondents, analysis of the standard rainfall anomaly index, and Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator tests, which were used to analyze the variability and trends in rainfall and temperature. Other instruments employed for the study include: the Household Food Balance Sheet (HFBS), Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), Household Dietary Diversity (HDD), Rasch model, and Foster-Greer-Torbeck Index (FGT). Ordered logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of food security. The data show that the mean annual temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/year from 1990 up to 2021 with the largest positive anomaly (+1.2) and negative anomaly (-0.7) in 2018 and 2021, respectively, indicating interannual variability in rainfall. The HFBS model showed that 74.7 percent of survey respondents were food insecure and 25.3 percent food secure. The HFIAS scale showed that 25.54 percent of households were food secure, while 36.45 percent had mild food security, 30.45 moderate food security, and 7.55 severe food insecurity. The HDD index shows a medium level of dietary diversity with a mean score of 7.75. The Rash model shows mean food security scores of 15.3 for Kindo Koisha Woreda and 13.2 for Loma Bosa Woreda. A unit increase in age and agronomic measures increases the probability of being food secure, with odds ratio of 1.1 and 17.9, respectively. The FGT index shows that 74.2 percent of households do not meet 2,100 kcal, with a food security gap of 36.6 percent. Food security is threatened by seasonal fluctuations in rainfall and temperature, indicating that livelihood diversification and conservation agriculture should be implemented.
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