Machine Learning Applied to Cholesterol-Lowering Pharmacotherapy: Proof-of-Concept in High-Risk Patients Treated in Primary Care

Abstract

Objectives:

Machine learning has potential to improve the management of lipid disorders. We explored the utility of machine learning in high-risk patients in primary care receiving cholesterol-lowering medications.

Methods:

Machine learning algorithms were created based on lipid management guidelines for England [National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) CG181] to reproduce the guidance with >95% accuracy. Natural language processing and therapy identification algorithms were applied to anonymized electronic records from six South London primary care general practices to extract medication information from free text fields.

Results:

Among a total of 48,226 adult patients, a subset of 5630 (mean ± standard deviation, age = 67 ± 13 years; male:female = 55:45) with a history of lipid-lowering therapy were identified. Additional major cardiometabolic comorbidities included type 2 diabetes in 13% (n = 724) and hypertension in 32% (n = 1791); all three risk factors were present in a further 28% (n = 1552). Of the 5630 patients, 4290 (76%) and 1349 (24%) were in primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention cohorts, respectively. Statin monotherapy was the most common current medication (82%, n = 4632). For patients receiving statin monotherapy, 71% (n = 3269) were on high-intensity therapy aligned with NICE guidance with rates being similar for the primary and secondary prevention cohorts. In the combined cohort, only 46% of patients who had been prescribed lipid-lowering therapy in the previous 12 months achieved the NICE treatment goal of >40% reduction in non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol from baseline pretreatment levels. Based on the most recent data entry for patients not at goal the neural network recommended either increasing the dose of statin, adding complementary cholesterol-lowering medication, or obtaining an expert lipid opinion.

Conclusions:

Machine learning can be of value in (a) quantifying suboptimal lipid-lowering prescribing patterns, (b) identifying high-risk patients who could benefit from more intensive therapy, and (c) suggesting evidence-based therapeutic options.