Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030: The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals,the Disruption of the Cow,and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming

When viewed as a protein ingredient production system, both dairy and beef cows are highly inefficient. According to Shepon's research, dairy cows convert only 14% of the protein they consume into edible human protein, and beef cows only 3%. Any production system that destroys value to this extent is a disruption waiting to happen. Shepon A, Eshel G, Noor E, Milo, R. Energy and protein feed-to-food conversion efficiencies in the US and potential food security gains from dietary changes. Environ Res Lett 2016;11(10).

de Ondarza MB . Protein. Milk Production (2004). Available at: http://milkproduction.com/Library/Scientific-articles/Nutrition/Protein/

Price does not equal cost. The price of, say, meat can be higher than individual molecules despite lower processing costs. This is because other products are byproducts.

Biology is now done in both 'dry' (computer) and 'wet' (lab) conditions. A researcher can quickly conduct hundreds of thousands of chemical, genetic, or pharmacological tests a day using robotics, data processing and control software, liquid handling devices, and sensitive detectors. This high-throughput screening allows scientists to prepare, incubate, and analyze many plates simultaneously, further speeding up the data-collection process.

Schwartz AS , Hannum GJ , Dwiel ZR , et al. Deep Semantic Protein Representation for Annotation, Discovery, and Engineering. bioRxiv (2018). Available at: https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/365965v1.article-info

CRISPR-CAS9 allows us to edit DNA in a cell cheaply, rapidly, and accurately. National Institute of Health (NIH), United States National Library of Medicine. (2019, May 14). What are Genome Editing and CRISPR-Cas9? Available at: https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/genomicresearch/genomeediting/

NIH National Human Genome . The Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome. Available at: https://genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost

In. 2017, Illumina announced their intent to reach $100 genome in “more than three years and fewer than 10”. Herper M. Illumina Promises To Sequence Human Genome For $100 - But Not Quite Yet (2017). Available at: https://forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2017/01/09/illumina-promises-to-sequence-human-genome-for-100-but-not-quite-yet/?sh=33f0562c386d

Carlson R. Bioeconomy Capital. Available at: http://bioeconomycapital.com/

National Human Genome Research Institute. Available at: genome.gov

Federal Reserve Bank. Available at: federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/federal-reserve-system.htm

ComputerWorld. Available at: https://computerworld.com/

TeraFLOPS, or trillion Floating point Operations Per Second , is a measure of computer performance. Seba T . [Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES)]. (2017, June 9). Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation. [Video File]. Available at: https://youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

PF is different to precision agriculture. Precision agriculture aims to extract more yield, revenue, and profits from the same patch of land providing, at best, a slight/marginal improvement. It is akin to making improvements in the film used in film cameras.

We define fermentation in a general sense, where the desired products can be the biomass, the intracellular or extracellular metabolites in the primary or secondary phases of growth, or the substrate that has been transformed.

Proteins are arguably the most important organic molecules to be produced for inputs across many consumer products. There are many different types of proteins, all of which have specific functions, including adding complex structure and texture, catalyzing reactions, and delivering nutritional and therapeutic value. Proteins are a major component of all living things and are classed into families with specific functions and with familiar names, such as collagen, whey, albumin, enzymes, and antibodies.

Insulin was commercially available in. 1982. PF is called recombinant protein production in biology. Fraser L. Cloning Insulin. Genentech (2016). Available at: https://gene.com/stories/cloning-insulin

Human Growth Hormone was commercially available in. 1985. National Museum of American History. The Big Story Behind Synthetic Human Growth Hormone (2012). Available at: https://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/2012/10/human-growth-hormone.html

Chymosin was commercially available in 1990. Flamm E. How the FDA approved chymosin: A case history. Nat Biotechnol , 1991;(9):349-351. doi: 10.1038/nbt0491-349

Biologics are pharmaceutical products that are made up of complex molecules isolated from, or produced by, microorganisms, or plant or animal cells. Many are made using biotechnology methods (PF) and are used to treat many serious, difficult-to-treat medical conditions. Some examples of biologics include Humira (anti-inflammatory), Avastin (cancer treatment) and Avonex (Multiple Sclerosis). United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). What are “Biologics” Questions and Answers (2018). Stone K. Top 10 Biologic Drugs in the United States. The Balance (2019). Available at: https://verywellhealth.com/top-biologic-drugs-2663233

Vitamins produced using PF include vitamin C , B2 B, D2 EF, As K, coenzyme Q, pyrroloquinoline quinine (PQQ) and glutathione (GSH). Some can be produced using a combination of chemistry and PF, such as niacin or B3, B5, C, and L-carnitine.

Stanbury P , Whitaker A , Hall S . (2017). Principles of Fermentation Technology (3rd ed). Ch.12. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, UK.

Shike DW. Beef Cattle Efficiency. Driftless Region Beef Conference (2013). Champaign, IL. Available at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=driftlessconference

Soy leghemoglobin (heme) is a plant based heme-containing protein found in the root nodules of soybean plants. It is being used as a key ingredient in plant-based meat products from Impossible Foods (The Impossible Burger). Heme is the iron-containing molecule found in blood and animal tissue that makes meat taste like meat. Impossible Foods. Heme + Science. Available at: https://impossiblefoods.com/heme

The wholesale price of sugar jumped from $0.27/kg to $1.23/kg between 1973 and 1974, and from $0.46/kg to $1.14/kg between 1979 and 1980.

HFCS-55 is high fructose corn syrup that contains 55% fructose. Kennedy PL, Garcia-Fuentas. A supply and demand estimation of the United States high fructose corn syrup market (2016). Agriculture and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, July 31-August 2. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea16/236100.html

Troitino C. Impossible Foods' Bleeding Burgers To Make Grocery Store Debut In 2019 (2018). Forbes. Available at: https://forbes.com/sites/christinatroitino/2018/11/08/impossible-foods-bleeding-burgers-to-make-grocery-store-debut-in-2019/#478c63ad98ba

For example, Burger King market the Impossible Burger based on health benefits (0mg of cholesterol). Burger King. The Impossible Taste Test, Impossible Whopper (2019) [Video File]. Available at: https://youtube.com/watch?v=N9FED3jkNTo

In. 2018, the lowest quartile of New England dairy farms made a loss of $447 per cow, with the average across all farms a loss of $40 per cow [net earnings]. Meanwhile, the number of dairy farms in the U.S. dropped by 6.8% from 2018 to 2019. Farm Credit East. (2019). Northeast Dairy Farm Summary 2018. Available at: https://www.farmcrediteast.com/knowledge-exchange/Reports/2018-northeast-dairy-farm-summary, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (2019). Milk Production. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h989r321c?locale=en

Price volatility in the dairy market is inherent because of seasonal variability, the perishable nature of milk, global shifts in supply and demand, and government regulations. Since. 2010, US milk prices have ranged from $0.32/kg to $0.57/kg. USDA NASS (2019). Prices received by month for milk. Available at: https://nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/pricemk.php

Direct and indirect subsidies from the government, estimated at $0.27/kg of milk in. 2015, enable U.S. dairy farmers to operate at a net loss, negating the need to earn a profit and protecting them from international price pressure. As U.S. milk consumption has steadily decreased, the government has been purchasing surplus production and storing it as cheese, periodically releasing it to market in the form of government food assistance and deals with corporations. For example, in early 2018, the dairy checkoff program Dairy Management Inc. (DMI) partnered with Pizza Hut to include 25% more cheese on their pan pizzas in an effort to release 70 million extra kilograms of milk per year to the market. The start of 2019 has seen the largest ever surplus of cheese in storage at almost 617 million kilograms. Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates. U.S. Federal and State Subsidies to Agriculture: Prepared for Dairy Farmers of Canada (2018). Available at: http://greyclark.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/US-Subsidies-Post-2014-Farm-Bill-FEB-2018.pdf. Wallin S. Checkoff's Pizza Hut Partnership Leads To 25% More Cheese On Pan Pizzas (2019). Dairy Management Inc. Available at: https://dairy.org/news/checkoffs-pizza-hut-partnership-leads-to-25-more-cheese-on-pan-pizzas USDA, NASS. (2019). Cold Storage. Available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/pg15bd892?locale=en

Some of the companies and organizations that are most active in lobbying the government on issues facing the dairy industry include Land O'Lakes, International Dairy Foods Association, Dairy Farmers of America, National Milk Producers Federation, and Dean Foods. The Center for Responsive Politics (2018). Dairy: Lobbying, 2018. Open Secrets. Retrieved from here. Available at: https://opensecrets.org/industries/lobbying.php?ind=A04++

Milk Facts. Milk Composition. Available at: http://milkfacts.info/Milk%20Composition/Milk%20Composition%20Page.htm

RethinkX estimates based on company and industry data

Whey and casein prices are volatile and have ranged from $7/kg to $12/kg for whey and $6/kg to $10/kg for casein in the past 10 years. Protein Market: Dairy Protein Market Trends and Outlook. Blimling and Associates. Available at: https://globalfoodforums.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3-Dairy-Protein-Markets-Banderob.pdf; UN Comtrade. 350220 Milk Albumin [Data File]. Trade Map. Available at: https://trademap.org/Country_SelProduct_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c%7c%7c%7c%7c350220%7c%7c%7c6%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c3%7c1 UN Comtrade. 3501105000 Other Casein, Except Of Milk Protein Concentrate [Data File]. Trade Map. Available at: https://trademap.org/Country_SelProduct_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c%7c%7c%7c%7cTOTAL%7c%7c%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c%7c1

Whey is a byproduct of cheese production and its use has grown in line with greater cheese consumption in the U.S . (cheese accounts for 40% of milk production today, up from 10% in 1950). United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS). (2017). Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System: Dairy Products [Data File]. Available at: https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-availability-per-capita-data-system/ The data serve as proxies for actual consumption at the national level.

Companies working on the production of milk proteins through PF include Perfect Day (US) (casein and whey) and New Culture (NZ) (casein micelles for mozzarella cheese).

Sugar Prices 37 Year Historical Chart [Data File]. Macrotrends. Available at: https://macrotrends.net/2537/sugar-prices-historical-chart-data

There is plenty of opportunity in niche markets for this disruption. Specific animal milks could be produced for zoos, while specialty proteins could be added to milk for a creamier froth.

This is a massively subsidized industry. If animal agriculture were a free market, the disappearance of a third of revenues would be enough to push it into bankruptcy.

Umhoefer J. The whey problem and California's Solution. Cheese Market News. Available at: https://cheesemarketnews.com/guestcolumn/2015/08may15_02.html

Danovich T. One pound of cheese makes nine pounds of whey. Where does it all go (2018)? The New Food Economy. Available at: https://thecounter.org/whey-disposal-reuse-cheese-dairy-byproduct/

Bushnell C. Newly Released Market Data Shows Soaring Demand for Plant Based Food (2018). Good Food Institute (GFI). Available at: https://gfi.org/blog/newly-released-market-data-shows-soaring/

Close D. Ground Beef Nation: The Effect of Changing Consumer Tastes and Preferences on the U.S. Cattle Industry (2014). Rabobank. Available at: https://beefcentral.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Ground-Beef-Nation.pdf

Seitan is another name for wheat gluten. Tofu is made from soybeans.

Quorn is a mycoprotein-based product which was launched commercially in 1985. Available at: https://quorn.us/

Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are amongst the most high-profile.

American Egg Board. Yes, It Really Is Incredible - The Indisputably Potent Protein Eggs Supply. Available at: https://aeb.org/search/result-item/98-cwhite-papers/584-protein

McCulloch M. What is Halo Top Ice Cream, and is it healthy (2019)? Healthline Media. Available at: https://healthline.com/nutrition/halo-top-ice-cream

Watson E. IRI pacesetters: What were the top 10 new food launches in 2017 (2018). Food Navigator. Available at: https://foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2018/04/16/IRI-pacesetters-What-were-the-top-10-new-food-and-beverage-product-launches-in-2017

Halo Top. Dairy Ice Cream Flavors (2019). Available at: https://halotop.com/dairy-ice-cream

de Vrese M , Stegel A , Richter B , Fenselau S , Laue Schrezenmeir . Probiotics-compensation for lactase insufficiency. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2001, doi: 10.1093/ajcn/73.2.421s.

Mohamed T. This century's best-performing U.S. stock sells energy drinks, not iPhones (MNST) (2019). Markets Insider. Available at: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/this-centurys-best-performing-us-stock-sells-energy-drinks-not-iphones-2019-4-1028114374

Altitrade Partners. This Could Be A Huge Game-Changer For The Energy Drink Market (2015). Available at: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3105846-this-could-be-a-huge-game-changer-for-the-energy-drink-market

Coleman ML. Hard to Swallow: How the military, a marathoner, and the relentless march of capitalism turned protein bars into an unlikely American staple (2019). Topic, 20. Available at: https://topic.com/hard-to-swallow

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. International Markets Bureau. Snack, Cereal and Nutrition Bars in the United States. Available at: http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.803238/publication.html

Daniells S. Protein Powders: The Heavyweight in the $16bn Sports Nutrition Market (2015). Food Navigator. Available at: https://foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2015/09/17/Protein-powders-The-heavyweight-in-the-16bn-sports-nutrition-market

Bistro In Vitro is a fictitious restaurant with a creative menu based on cellular agriculture and the possibilities it enables , imagined by a group of artists, designers, chefs, scientists, and philosophers. Available at: https://bistro-invitro.com/en/starters/

This point is an estimate based on our analysis of the industry margins and operating and financial leverage.

What Happens to Animal Waste. FoodPrint. Available at: https://foodprint.org/issues/what-happens-to-animal-waste/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-1324

In this instance, the cattle industry includes cattle ranching and farming, animal food production, dairy product production, animal slaughtering and processing, and leather and hide tanning and finishing. RethinkX estimate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Available at: https://bls.gov/home.htm; Almost two million people are employed in animal agriculture in the U.S.

BLS. Consumer Expenditure Survey. Consumers spend, on average, 2% of their expenditures on meat, dairy, eggs, fish and poultry (2017). Available at: https://bls.gov/cex/tables.htm#avgexp

This includes 38% of the corn crop, 35% of the soybean crop, and 95% of hay production. RethinkX estimate. Merrill D, Leatherby, L. Here's How America Uses Its Land (2018). Bloomberg. Available at: https://bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/

Crop consumption does vary considerably by species—corn goes mostly to cattle (45%) while soy goes mostly to feeding chickens (58%) and pigs (23%). Exports of feed crops, which account for 15% of total cropland, will also be affected by the disruption. In 2017, 50% of soybean (57% of exports go to China for pig feed) and 15% of corn production was exported. RethinkX estimate, USDA, National Corn Growers Association, United Soybean Board, UN Comtrade.

Total livestock feed consumption is about 515 million tons, 305 million of which is from crops (corn, soy, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat and hay). The cattle percentage of feed crop consumption is about 50%. Other sources of feed for cattle and other livestock include animal protein meals, mill byproducts, mineral supplements, and pasture. RethinkX estimate US DA. (2017). Agricultural Statistics . 2017. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. Available at: https://nass.usda.gov/Publications/Ag_Statistics/2017/Complete%20Ag%20Stats%202017.pdf

While cows typically have a feed conversion: edible product ratio (ratio of input to output) of around 25:1, modern foods will have a ratio closer to 2:1. This means that to produce the same amount of beef, it will take 10 to 25 times less feed. Different producers are using different crops for this purpose at the moment, but in the future it will be possible to use almost any biomatter, including bio waste products or products not digestible by humans (such as leaves) to feed cells.

MacDonald JM , Hoppe RA . Large Family Farms Continue To Dominate U.S. Agricultural Production (2017). USDA, ERS. Available at: https://ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/march/large-family-farms-continue-to-dominate-us-agricultural-production/

American farmers have continuously adopted technology and adapted to market conditions to improve profitability. For example, the number of acres planted with GMO soy crops grew from around 17% of acres in 1997 to 68% in. 2001, before plateauing at 94% in 2014. USDA, ERS. (2018, July 16). Recent Trends in GE Adoption. Available at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/adoption-of-genetically-engineered-crops-in-the-us/recent-trends-in-ge-adoption.aspx

Merck's Innovation Center invests in forward-looking ideas , identifying Innovation Fields where they see potential for new business . One of these is clean meat. Available at: https://emdgroup.com/en/research/innovation-center/innovation-fields.html

Integriculture (Japan) is a venture-funded cell-based meat startup company and Shojinmeat Project (Japan) is a citizen science community working toward open-source, cell-based meat production.

This estimate includes feed exports as part of feed crop acreage.

Khan S , Loyola C , Dettling J , et al. Comparative environmental LCA of the Impossible Burger with conventional ground beef burger (2019). Quantis for Impossible Foods. Available at: https://impossiblefoods.com/if-pr/LCA-Update-2019/

The Louisiana purchase (1803) between France and the U.S . doubled the size of the country and expanded its territory from the Mississippi River to the Rocky Mountains , and from the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border . Louisiana Purchase. (2019). History. Available at: https://history.com/topics/westward-expansion/louisiana-purchase

We use the term reforestation to encompass both reforestation and afforestation - growing trees to establish forest cover on grounds that have either been cleared of forest in the recent past, distant past or have never had forest cover.

The production of synthetic fabrics such as polyester, nylon and acrylic opened up the clothing market and has allowed for inexpensive mass production of fabric for clothing and other uses. These plastic-containing materials are of the largest source (35%) of microplastics in the ocean (and in landfills), a major, far reaching, global pollution problem. BoucherJ, Friot D. Primary Microplastics in the Oceans: A Global Evaluation of Sources (2017). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Available at: https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2017.01.en

Cattle are typically moved 6 times between farms, travelling around 200 miles on a livestock truck, before they are slaughtered. Kannan N, Saleh A, Osei. Estimation of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of transportation in beef cattle production. Energies , 2016; 9(11),960. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/en9110960

This estimate includes live animals & fish, animal feed, meat & seafood, cereal grains (40%), fertilizers (40%), milk, and milk fat (2017). Center for Transportation Analysis. Freight Analysis Framework Data Tabulation Tool [Data File].

Refrigerators in food storage, retail, and transportation are large consumers of energy throughout the supply chain. Refrigeration is responsible for about 40% of energy use in grocery stores and supermarkets and about 14% of household energy.

A report from the UK suggests that about 6% of total energy is used for non-household refrigeration, including retail display, refrigerated transport, and cold storage. Meat and dairy chilling are large contributors to this total, so we can assume that any reduction in these could have a noticeable impact on energy use in the U.S. as well. Currently, there are approximately 635 million kgs of cheese and 1.2 billion kgs of meat in U.S. cold storage, which implies significant energy use. RethinkX estimate, Swain M. Energy use in food refrigeration (2008). University of Bristol. Available at: https://grimsby.ac.uk/documents/defra/usrs-top10users.pdf

About 1% of U.S. oil product consumption. EIA. FAQ: How much oil is consumed in the United States (2019). Available at: https://eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6; Hitaj C. Energy Consumption and Production in Agriculture (2017). USDA, ERS. Available at: https://ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/januaryfebruary/energy-consumption-and-production-in-agriculture/

Percentage applied to 2019 total. Includes consumption for agriculture and forestry. International Energy Agency (IEA). United States: Balances for 2016 [Data File]. IEA World Energy Balances 2018: Statistics data browser. Available at: https://iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy%20supply&indicator=TPESbySource; EIA. (2019). Available at: https://eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6