ABSTRACT
Calculations involving uncertainties are far beyond the capabilities of conventional analysis for any but the simplest of waste management models. There exist a number of general-purpose simulation languages, using Monte Carlo methods, that are capable of such analysis, but these languages are difficult to learn and to implement quickly. MOUSE (an acronym for Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm) deals with the problem of uncertainties in waste management models that consist of one or more algebraic equations. The MOUSE system writes a FORTRAN program which, when the user's model is added, is ready to be compiled and executed. It was especially designed for use by those with little or no knowledge of computer languages, programming or simulation. It is designed to be run on almost any personal computer and has all of the features needed for substantive uncertainty analysis (built-in probability distributions, plotting and graphing capabilities, sensitivity analysis, interest functions for cost analyses, etc.). A series of unique companion utility programs help in analyzing sample data to determine the probability distributions that best fit that data, check each program for errors in syntax, and assist in finding logical errors in the waste management model. Some typical examples of the use of MOUSE within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency include: studying the migration of pollution plumes in streams, establishing regulations for hazardous wastes in landfills, and estimating pollution control costs.
