Does the expansion of voting by mail lead to higher turnout rates? Our thesis challenges the theoretical motivation underlying existing studies that expect merely a substitution effect, or worse, a decrease in turnout, in states that have more expansive convenience voting mechanisms in place, in particular, mail voting. The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped how we usually conceive of convenience voting, from the timing of the vote to the modality. But even before the 2020 election, we show voter turnout across the states is consistently higher in every general election over the past decade in states with greater shares of overall ballots cast by mail. Drawing on turnout data from the 2012-2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find states with greater usage of mail voting experience higher overall voter turnout.
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