Abstract
This article seeks to determine if theories of repeat player behavior from legal and regulatory literature explain outcomes of third-party monitors in the campaign finance context. We compile an original data set to analyze all campaign finance allegations made against candidates for the U.S. Congress from 2006 to 2012. This includes cases originated by third parties as well as from internal Federal Election Commission (FEC) auditing. Cases are coded by allegation type, identity of the individual filing the complaint, and case outcome. We analyze this data in two ways. First, we examine which campaigns produce allegations of campaign finance violations. In accordance with previous literature, we theorize that third-party monitors will be incentivized by partisan interests. We thus hypothesize that third parties are more likely to engage in monitoring and make campaign finance allegations closer to the election, and in competitive races with high levels of spending, whereas neither factor will predict FEC-initiated cases. Our second analysis focuses on case outcomes. Here, we theorize that some third-party monitors will outperform others, with repeat players lodging higher quality complaints than one shotters. We code the validity and triviality of each allegation, as revealed by the adjudication process. Our analysis confirms our expectations that repeat players (parties, interest groups, and incumbent campaigns) outperform one shotters (individuals and challenger campaigns). We find no evidence that electoral incentives affect the quality of the complaints, with null findings that campaign competitiveness and complaint timing correlate with complaint quality.
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