Proponents argue that universal vote-by-mail (VBM) reforms increase voter turnout and decrease compositional disparities in the electorate, but studies have found negative effects of VBM on turnout in California. We exploit a natural experiment in which small precincts in California may be assigned to conduct elections solely by mail. Using the largest California VBM dataset to date, we find that turnout among registered voters in VBM precincts is discernibly lower than traditional precincts in general elections, though we are unable to detect an effect in primary elections. The negative effect is generally consistent across ethnic groups, but we find a positive effect for young voters. We argue that differences in the implementation of VBM in California may have led to effects unlike those in Oregon and Washington. We conclude with a call for states to increase investment in voter outreach when pursuing VBM policies.
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