Prognostic Modeling for Liver Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction and Real-Time Health Monitoring from Electronic Health Data

Abstract

Liver cirrhosis stands as a prominent contributor to mortality, impacting millions across the United States. Enabling health care providers to predict early mortality among patients with cirrhosis holds the potential to enhance treatment efficacy significantly. Our hypothesis centers on the correlation between mortality and laboratory test results along with relevant diagnoses in this patient cohort. Additionally, we posit that a deep learning model could surpass the predictive capabilities of the existing Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. This research seeks to advance prognostic accuracy and refine approaches to address the critical challenges posed by cirrhosis-related mortality. This study evaluates the performance of an artificial neural network model for liver disease classification using various training dataset sizes. Through meticulous experimentation, three distinct training proportions were analyzed: 70%, 80%, and 90%. The model’s efficacy was assessed using precision, recall, F1-score, accuracy, and support metrics, alongside receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision–recall (PR) curves. The ROC curves were quantified using the area under the curve (AUC) metric. Results indicated that the model’s performance improved with an increased size of the training dataset. Specifically, the 80% training data model achieved the highest AUC, suggesting superior classification ability over the models trained with 70% and 90% data. PR analysis revealed a steep trade-off between precision and recall across all datasets, with 80% training data again demonstrating a slightly better balance. This is indicative of the challenges faced in achieving high precision with a concurrently high recall, a common issue in imbalanced datasets such as those found in medical diagnostics.