Temporal Analysis of HIV Burden in India and Its States Over Three Decades: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a group of disorders caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Globally, 1.7 million people became newly infected with HIV in 2019. This study aims to assess trends in HIV burden in India and its states from 1990 to 2019 for tracking the progress of the National AIDS Control Program (NACP). This study assesses the burden of HIV in India and its states from 1990 to 2019, using data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The data are presented as age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, along with corresponding uncertainty intervals (95% UI) and the relative percentage change. Globally, there was a decrease in the age-standardized incidence rate of HIV from 37.59 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.24 cases per 100,000 in 2019. However, in India, it increased from 3.43 cases per 100,000 to 5.01 cases per 100,000 during the same period. There was an increase in both HIV prevalence and HIV-related death rates in India and globally. The increases in estimates were smaller for the rest of the world compared to India. In India, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates of HIV were reportedly higher in males vis-à-vis females for all years between 1990 and 2019. Age-standardized HIV prevalence, HIV-associated mortality, and DALYs increased globally and in India from 1990 to 2019. Incidence increased in India, while it decreased globally during the same period. To identify bottlenecks in the current NACP recommendations, a multicentric study is needed.