The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of HIV-1 very low-level viremia (<50 copies/ml) on the 2-year risk of virological failure. A retrospective analysis including HIV-positive patients presenting two consecutive HIV RNA below 50 copies/ml (outpatient clinic in Italy, first semester of 2010) was performed. HIV RNA was measured through real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay CAP/CTM HIV-1 version 2.0 (detection limit: 20 copies/ml) and stratified as undetectable RNA (“Target Not Detected”, TND), <20 copies/ml, 20–50 copies/ml. After 96 weeks virological failure was defined as two consecutive viral loads above 50 copies/ml. Log-rank tests and a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model were used for univariate and multivariate analysis. A total of 1,055 patients (71.4% male, 87.4% white, aged 46.7 years) were included: nadir and current CD4 cell counts were 203 cells/mm3 (106–292) and 554 cells/mm3 (413–713.5). HIV RNA was undetectable in 781 patients (74%), <20 copies/ml in 190 patients (18%) and 20–50 copies/ml in 84 patients (8%). Virological failure was observed in 81 patients (7.7%); at multivariate analysis detectable RNA at baseline (p=0.017), HCV infection (p=0.020), more than three pills in the regimen (p=0.003), and duration of HIV RNA <50 copies/ml below 2 years (p<0.001) were independently associated with virological failure. In 14 patients newly selected resistance-associated mutations were observed. Undetectable HIV RNA by real-time PCR is significantly associated with a lower 2-year risk of virological failure along with Ab HCV negativity, longer viral control, and lower pill burden. Studies investigating the management of residual viremia under antiretroviral treatment are warranted.
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