The Validity of the Cracow Instrument in the Prediction of Antisocial Development in Preschool Children: A Five-Year Longitudinal Community-Based Study

Abstract

Risk-focused early intervention is a very promising approach for preventing antisocial development in childhood and youth. Therefore, at a NATO Advanced Study Institute the Cracow Instrument was developed (Corrado, 2002). The Cracow Instrument is a developmentally based risk management instrument designed to identify children and youth at-risk for serious and violent antisocial behavior. The current study examines the prospective validity of the Cracow Instrument utilizing the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (e.g., Lösel, Stemmler, & Bender, 2013). At the first assessment, the community sample contained 675 male and female children at preschool age (M = 4.7 years). For example, for a broad scale on externalizing problems the predictive validity was r = .52 (AUC = .78) after one year and r = .42 (AUC = .75) after five years. Overall, the predictive validity of the Cracow Instrument was satisfactory. Implications for its practical application in risk management are discussed.