The Prediction of Imminent Aggression and Self-Harm in Personality Disordered Patients of a High Security Hospital Using the HCR-20 Clinical Scale and the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression

Abstract

Drawing on recent advances in the violence risk assessment literature, this study tested the predictive validity of two structured measures designed to support risk related decision making, the HCR-20 and the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression (DASA), for the prediction of imminent aggression and self-harm in personality disordered patients of a high secure psychiatric hospital. For four months nursing staff completed daily assessments of patients using the DASA and the Clinical scale items from the HCR-20. On the following day they documented whether patients had behaved aggressively and/or self-harmed. Results revealed modest predictive validity, significantly better than chance, for both the prediction of imminent self-harm and aggression for both measures. Furthermore, these results suggest that personality disordered patients in a negative psychological state characterized by irritability, impulsivity and disagreeableness are at an increased risk of aggression and self-harm during involuntary psychiatric inpatient treatment and that this state is sensitive to structured risk assessment.