Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assessment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War

Abstract

This investigation applies an expected utility (EU) analysis to assess the impact of the 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq on the security perceptions of states in the Persian Gulf region, and to determine how shifts in the distribution of preferences among self-interested actors might influence the formation of coalitions in the Middle East. The outcome suggests that concerns for an incumbent leader's political survival may create a set of values that prevents states from forming coalitions in response to a commonly perceived threat. Of particular interest is the finding that while challengers such as Iran may not forge an anti-U.S. coalition, by maintaining its current position Tehran could foreclose bargaining opportunities that would result in an outcome more favorable to the U.S.