Victim of Success: American Dominance and Terrorism

Abstract

While terrorist attacks against American interests represent an important topic, few studies use international relations theory and a rigorous statistical methodology to examine their occurrence. In recognition of these shortcomings, this paper hypothesizes and tests a simple yet powerful relationship: as American dominance of the international system increases, the number of attacks against its interests will also rise. This relationship exists because American dominance leaves little room for revisionist actors to alter the status quo through conventional means, which makes terrorist methods an increasingly likely choice. Using ARIMA modeling techniques on a data set that spans from 1968—1996, we gain confirmation that increasing levels of American dominance are positively correlated with large numbers of attacks against American interests.