Assessing the Dyadic Approach to Interstate Conflict Processes: A.k.a. “Dangerous” Dyad-Years

Abstract

The “dyad” has become the analytical cornerstone of quantitative interstate conflict studies. Stuart Bremer, in no small part due to his “Dangerous Dyads” article, has been identified with the dyadic/dyad-year approach. We think this has come at the expense of his interest in “process models” of interstate conflict. Our examination of his writings on The Process of War indicate that multilateral conflict processes are most probably misspecified by a dyadic approach. We draw on examples such as alliance coalition formation, extended deterrence, economic sanctions, and especially war expansion, to elaborate upon and support our claim. We conclude our assessment of the dyadic/dyad-year approach by suggesting some areas for our colleagues to consider before adopting a dyadic approach in their own research.