The Estimation of Rates of Unemployment for Small Spatial Units

Abstract

This paper details a methodology for estimating the rate of unemployment at a spatial level below that currently available. It suggests that a reasonable estimate of the unemployment rate, based on residents, can be made, using available data, for small areas. Using Cardiff as an example, the paper shows how, once published data has been manipulated to achieve an age and gender disaggregated population base for electoral wards, estimates of activity rates can be applied to achieve a total resident economically active population. This estimate is then used, in conjunction with the claimant count, to produce a resident-based unemployment rate applicable to small areas within the county. The results are evaluated against alternative approaches.