This paper formulates an integrated metropolitan model which captures full intersectoral and interspatial relations as well as impacts on transport networks within a metropolitan area. To achieve this, the proposed model consists of three components: multizonal input-output linkages; land forecast models; and transport demand forecast models. Given the model structure, the proposed model can estimate economic impacts by type of secondary repercussions (indirect, and induced spillovers), by industry type and by zone. In addition, the proposed model will forecast the size of land by land-use type and by zone and estimate changes in traffic volumes on transport networks due to an urban policy. Moreover, the three components of the proposed model can be easily linked with GIS, presenting all the zone-specific information generated from the model on maps.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Artle, R. (1961) On some methods and problems in the study of metropolitan economics, Papers of theRegional Science Association, 8, pp. 71-87.
2.
Barras, R. and Broadbent, T. (1975) A framework for structure plan analysis. PRAG TP8 . London: Centre for Environmental Studies.
3.
Batey, P. and Madden, M. (1981) Demographic-economic forecasting within an activity-commodity framework, Environment and Planning A, 13, pp. 1067-1083.
4.
Batten, D. and Martellato, D. (1985) Classical versus modern approaches to interregional input-output analysis, The Annals of Regional Science, 19, pp. 1-15.
5.
Batty, M. (1986) Technical issues in urban model development: a review of linear and nonlinear model structures, in: B. Hutchinson and M. Batty (Eds) Advances in Urban System Modelling, pp. 133-162. North-Holland : Elsevier Science Publishers.
6.
Blair, P. and Miller, R.E. (1983) Spatial aggregation in multiregional input-output models, Environment and Planning A, 15, pp. 187-206.
7.
Chenery, H.B. (1953) Regional analysis, in: H. B. Chenery, P. Clark and V. Cao-Pinna (Eds) The Structure and Growth of the Italian Economy, pp. 97-116. Rome: US Mutual Security Agency.
8.
Garin, R.A. (1966) A matrix formulation of the Lowry model for intrametropolitan activity allocation, Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 32, pp. 361-364.
9.
Heikkila, E.Gordon, P., Richardson, H.W. and Jun, M. (1991) Spatial and sectoral impacts of the southern California ports "2020 Plan". Unpublished Paper, University of Southern California.
Isard, W. (1951) Interregional and regional input-output analysis: a model of space economy, The Review of Economics and Statistics , 33, pp. 318-328.
12.
Kim, T.J., Boyce, D.E. and Hewings, G.D. (1983) Combined input-output and commodity flow models for interregional development planning: insights from a Korean application , Geographical Analysis, 15, pp. 330-342.
13.
Leontief, W. and Strout, A. (1963) Multiregional input-output analysis, in: T. Barna (Ed.) Structural Interdependence and Economic Development , pp. 119-150. London: Macmillan.
14.
Lowry, I.S. (1964) A Model ofMetropolis. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
15.
Macgill, S.M. (1977) The Lowry model as an input-output model and its extension to incorporate full intersectoral relations, Regional Studies, 11, pp. 337-354.
16.
Macgill, S.M. (1978) Rectangular input-output tables, multiplier analysis and entropy maximizing principles, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 8, pp. 355-370.
17.
Madden, M. (1985) Demographic-economic analysis in a multizonal region: a case study of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 15, pp. 517-540.
18.
Madden, M., Batey, P. (1983) Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization, Journal of Regional Science, 23, pp. 141-164.
19.
Miyazawa, K. (1976) Input-output Analysis and the Structure of Income Distribution. Berlin: Springer- Verlag.
20.
Moses, L.N. (1955) The stability of interregional trading patterns and input-output analysis, American Economic Review, 45, pp. 803-832.
21.
Moses, L.N. (1960) A general equilibrium model of production, interregional trade, and location of industry, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 42, pp. 373-397.
22.
National Highway Institute (Nhi) (1994) Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting. NHI Course Number 15254, US DOT, Federal Highway Administration.
23.
Ogden, K.W. (1992) Urban Goods Movement: A Guide to Policy and Planning . Aldershot: Ash-gate.
24.
Putman, S.H. (1983) Integrated Urban Models. London : Pion Limited.
25.
Richardson, H.W. (1977) The New Urban Economics: And Alternatives. London: Pion Limited.
26.
Richardson, H.W. (1985) Input-output and economic base multipliers: looking backward and forward, Journal of Regional Science, 25, pp. 607-661.
27.
Richardson, H.W. and Gordon, P. (1989) A spatial-sectoral model for measuring economic and social impacts in a metropolitan political context, in: Proposals to the National Science Foundation, School of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Southern California.
28.
Richardson, H.W., Gordon, P. and Giuliano, G. (1991) Los Angeles: At an economic cross-roads. A Report to the Los Angeles Headquarters City Association, School of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Southern California.
29.
Richardson, H.W., GORDON, P., JUN, M. J. and KiM, M. (1993) Pride and prejudice: the economic and racial impacts of growth control in Pasadena, Environment and Planning A, 25, pp.987-1002.
30.
Riefler, R. and Tiebout, C. (1970) Interregional input-output: an empiricalCalifornia-Washington model, Journal of Regional Science, 10, pp. 135-152.
31.
Romanoff, E. (1974) The economic base model: a very special case of input output analysis, Journal of Regional Science, 14, pp. 121-129.
32.
Wilson, A.G. (1970) Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling. London: Pion.
33.
Wilson, A.G. (1971) A family of spatial interaction models, and associated developments, Environment and Planning A, 3, pp. 1-32.
34.
Wilson, A.G. (1974) Urban and Regional Models in Geography and Planning . Chichester: John Wiley & Sons .
35.
Wilson, A.G. and Kirkby, M.J. (1980) Mathematics for Geographers and Planners. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
