This paper identifies certain forces underlying the recent declines of population and income in US metropolitan areas relative to the remainder of the nation. Determinants specifically examined are income, unemployment rate, occupational mix, age of the population, and climate. A disaggregation of the sample shows that the determinants of change differ markedly between areas experiencing relative growth and decline of per-capita income and population. The finding argues for selective regional or metropolitan development policy.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Beale, C.L. (1977). The recent shift of United States population to nonmetropolitan areas, 1970-75. International Regional Science Review, Vol. II: 113-122.
2.
Bell, F.W. (1967). An econometric forecasting model for a region . Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 7: 109-125.
3.
Berry, B.J.L. (1978). The counterurbanization process: How general? In N. M. Hansen (ed.), Human Settlement Systems: International Perspectives on Structure, Change and Public Policy. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger: 25-49.
4.
Biggar, J.C. (1979). The sunning of America: migration to the sunbelt . Population Bulletin, Vol. XXXIV.
5.
Bretzfelder, R.B. (1973). Sensitivity of state and regional income to national business cycles. Survey of Current Business, Vol. 53: 22-33.
6.
Burns, L.S. (1964). People and jobs, or chickens and eggs. Land Economics, Vol. XL: 231-234.
7.
Burns, L.S. (1975). The urban income distribution: a human capital explanation. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 5: 465-482.
8.
Burns, L.S. (forthcoming). The metropolitan population of the United States: historical and emerging trends. In L. H. Klaassen, W. T. M. Molle, and J. H. Paelinck (eds.), The Dynamics of Urban Development . Westmead: Saxon House.
9.
Cebula, R.J. and Vedder, R.K. (1973). A note on migration, economic opportunity and the quality of life. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 13: 205-211.
10.
Crow, R.T. (1973). A nationally-linked regional econometric model . Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 13: 187-204.
11.
Fuchs, V.I. (1962). Changes in the Location of Manufacturing in the United States Since 1929. New Haven: Yale University Press.
12.
Graves, P.E. (1979). A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. VI: 135-147.
13.
Greenwood, M.J. and Gormely, P.T. (1971). A comparison of the determinants of white and non-white interstate migration. Demography, Vol. 8: 141-154.
14.
Leven, C.L. (1978a). The changing demographic and social outlook for metropolitan areas. In F. G. Mittelbach (ed.), Current and Future Directions of Real Estate and Urban Development in the United States. Los Angeles: University of California: 19-33.
Liu, B.-C. (1975). Differential net migration rates and the quality of life. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52: 329-337.
17.
Lowry, I.W. (1966). Migration and Metropolitan Growth: Two Analytical Models. San Francisco: Chandler Publishing Co.
18.
Mattila, J.M. and Thompson, W.R. (1968). Toward an econometric model of urban economic development. In H. S. Perloff and L. Wingo, Jr. (eds.), Issues in Urban Economics. Baltimore: John Hopkins Press: 63-80.
19.
Mccarthy, K.F. and Morrison, P.A. (1977). The changing demographic and economic structure of nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. International Regional Science Review, Vol. II: 123-142.
20.
Mccarthy, K.F. and Morrison, P.A. (1978). The changing demographic and economic structure of nonmetropolitan areas in the 1970s. P-6062. Santa Monica: Rand Corp.
21.
Mccarthy, K.F. and Morrison, P.A. (1979). The changing demographic and economic structure of non-metropolitan areas in the United States. R-2399-EDA. Santa Monica: Rand Corp.
22.
Muth, R.F. (1971). Migration, chicken or egg. The Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 37: 295-306.
23.
Perloff, H.S., Dunn, E.S. JR., Lampard, E.E. and Muth, R.P. (1961). Regions, Resources and Economic Growth. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.
24.
Perloff, H.S. (1978). The central city in the postindustrial age. In C. L. Leven (ed.), The Mature Metropolis. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Publishing Co.: 109-129.
25.
Richardson, H.W. (1974). Empirical aspects of regional growth in the United States. The Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 8: 8-23.
26.
Shaw, R.P. (1975). Migration Theory and Fact: A Review and Bibliography of Current Literature. Philadelphia: Regional Science Research Institute.
27.
Sternlieb, G. and Hughes, J.W. (1977). New regional and metropolitan realities of America .' Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 43: 227-240.
28.
Sternlieb, G. and Hughes, J.W. (1978). Current Population Trends in the United States . New Brunswick: Center for Urban Policy Research.
29.
Thompson, W.R. (1968). Internal and external factors in the development of urban economies. In H. S. Perloff and L. Wingo (eds.), Issues in Urban Economics. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press: 43-62.
30.
US ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE SERVICES ADMINISTRATION, Department of Commerce (1970). Climatological Data: National Summary. Washington, D.C.: USGPO .
