A Quantitative Analysis of Alternative Theatre Locations

Abstract

Quantitative techniques are becoming increasingly used in forecasts of land-use demand for urban planning. This paper relates to a regression analysis employed in making estimates of future trips to a new theatre to be located on one of two potential sites in the London Borough of Havering. The study describes first the basic survey, then model design, calibration and statistical validation and finally the use of the model for a comparative projection of demand. A detailed presentation is made of the data sources used in the analysis, which were the primary constraints on any more sophisticated approach. The essential aim of the paper is to illustrate the use of a straightforward statistical technique as an aid to demand evaluation in a highly specialised locational problem.

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References

The underlying assumptions of normality in the data which are theoretically required for the application of this test are not, in fact, strictly observed in this example. In particular the trip variable shows a marked asymmetrical form which could not be transformed into a normal distribution. Although the confidence which might normally be placed in the results of the test at specific probability levels must therefore be considerably reduced, the very high value of F obtained nevertheless gives a strong measure of support to the general contention that the increase is significant, even though exact probability levels can no longer be reliably specified.