A new modelling paradigm for sketch-planning applications in transport and urban policymaking is presented. It is based on the use of a scenario-forecasting procedure which employs genetic algorithms to develop a set of alternative scenarios for accomplishing a set of predetermined goals. The method is capable of generating a diverse range of alternative strategies and policy mixes, and it often indicates possible side impacts of such alternatives. By way of illustration, the method is applied within the city of Perth, Western Australia, and some innovative policies are generated.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AtkinsS T, 1987, “The crisis for transportation planning modelling”Transport Reviews7307–325
2.
ChambersL DTaylorM A P. 1991, “Where are we going? The use of the trends integrator procedure (TIP) for scenario generation”Traffic Engineering and Control32309–314
3.
ChambersL DTaylorM A P, 1992, “A new modelling paradigm for strategic planning”Papers of the Australasian Transport Research Forum1739–54
LarsonT D, 1988, “Metropolitan congestion: Towards a tolerable accommodation”Transportation Quarterly42489–498
6.
NewtonP WTaylorM A P, 1985, “Probable urban futures”, in The Future of Urban Form: The Impact of New Technology Eds BrotchieJ FNewtonP WHallPNijkampP, (Croom Helm, London) pp 313–336
7.
OrskiC K, 1987, “Can we manage our way out of traffic congestion?”Transportation Quarterly41457–476
8.
StarkieD N M, 1974, “Transport planning and the policy-modelling interface”Transportation3323–334
