Models of Needs in Large New Residential Units

Abstract

This paper describes a methodological approach to the design of large residential developments. Techniques are described for predicting the composition of the population in proposed developments, including changes in the age structure and in household formation over time, as the housing development and its inhabitants mature. Forecasts are also made about where the residents are likely to work, what services they will require, and where their recreation time might be spent. It is assumed that the residential units are sufficiently large for statistical methods to be valid in making forecasts. Foreseen variations in housing needs over time are taken into account by the flexibility within the design of buildings. Methods for determining the sizes of auxiliary urban facilities are also outlined. As comprehensive an approach as possible is taken, the methods themselves being subject to improvement with use and experience.