In this paper, explicit grain production and demand models were used to analyze changes in national and regional grain production in China over the period 1990–97 and the future grain supply and demand up to the year 2087. A decomposition approach was developed on the basis of the grain production model to estimate the impacts of various input factors on grain production in China. National grain production, demand, and import in the future were modelled. This modelling framework allows projections of the future food situation of China on the basis of various scenarios. The results are fairly transparent and can be traced to the conditions of input factors and the level of consumption.
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