In this paper I review existing models which forecast regional supply and demand in the European Union. I distinguish between five main classes of models. I also show their recent applications as well as their main features. If the findings are linked with changes in economic thinking, the direction of future model development can be indicated.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AgrestiA, 1990Categorical Data Analysis (John Wiley, New York)
2.
BadeF J, 1991Regional Employment Prognosis 1995. Research in Spatial Development, volume 21 (Federal Institute for Regional Science and Physical Planning, Bonn)
3.
BartelA PLichtenbergF R, 1987, “The comparative advantage of educated workers in implementing new technology”The Review of Economics and Statistics11–11
4.
BateyP W JRoseA Z, 1990, “Extended input—output models: progress and potential”International Regional Science Review1327–49
5.
BeaumontP M, 1990, “Supply and demand interaction in integrated econometric and input—output models”International Regional Science Review13167–181
6.
BeggIMayesD, 1991A New Strategy for Social and Economic Cohesion after 1992 Regional policy and transport series-19, research and documentation papers, Directorate-General for Research, European Parliament, Brussels
7.
BekkeringJ MCramerJ SOudI A M, 1988Technologie en Opleidingseisen SEO-rapport 214, Stichting voor Economisch Orderzoek, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam
8.
BellD N F, 1993, “Regional econometric modelling in the UK: a review”Regional Studies27777–782
9.
BlanchardO JSummersL H, 1988, “Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem”, in Unemployment, Hysteresis and the Natural Rate Hypothesis Ed. CrossR (Basil Blackwell, Oxford) pp 306–346
10.
BoltonR, 1985, “Regional econometric models”Journal of Regional Science25495–520
11.
BorghansLHeijkeH, 1993, “Forecasting the educational structure of occupations: a manpower requirement approach with substitution”, paper presented at the 5th annual EALE conference, Maastricht, 30 September–3 October; copy available from the author
12.
BuistDvan GilsIVermeulenM, 1994, “RANBO: een ‘krachtig’ model voor de voorspelling van het arbeidsaanbod per RBA-gebied”Planning94(46) 2–13
13.
CamstraR, 1993, “The geodemography of gender: spatial behaviour of working women”Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie85434–445
14.
CaslerS D, 1989, “A theoretical context for shift and share analysis”Regional Studies2343–48
15.
CohenS I, 1988, “Manpower planning models with labour market adjustment: applications to Colombia, Republic of Korea and Pakistan”Economic Modelling519–31
16.
CourbisR, 1979, “The Regina-model; a regional—national model for French planning”Regional Science and Urban Economics9117–139
17.
d'Alcantara, 1983SERENA, A Macroeconomic Sectoral, Regional and National Accounting Econometric Model for the Belgian Economy (Acco, Leuven)
18.
DangerfieldB JMorrisJ S, 1992, “Top-down or bottom-up: aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations”International Journal of Forecasting8233–241
19.
EbertsR WStoneJ A, 1992Wage and Employment Adjustment in Local Labor Markets (W E Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI)
20.
EckeyH-F, 1988, “Methoden zu Prognosen von Arbeidsplätzen in Regionen”, in Regionalprognosen: Methoden und Ihre Anwendung Forschungsberichte 175 (Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung, Hannover) pp 205–234
21.
EvansG JLindleyR M, 1973, “The use of RAS and related models in manpower forecasting”Economics of Planning1353–73
22.
GhijsenP W T, 1994Technological Change in Static and Dynamic Factor Demand ModelsFaculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Limburg, Maastricht
23.
GlennN D, 1977Cohort Analysis Sage University papers 5 (Sage, Beverley Hills, CA)
24.
GordijnHvan WissenL, 1992, “Demografie van bedrijven”Planning431–43
25.
HagenaarsJ A, 1990Categorical Longitudinal Data: Log—Linear, Trend and Cohort Analysis (Sage, London)
26.
HamermeshDGrantJ, 1979, “Econometric studies of labor—labor substitution and their implications for policy”Journal of Human Resources14518–542
27.
HamptonP, 1987, “Economics and human geography”Progress in Human Geography11106–125
28.
HarriganFMcGregorP G (Eds), 1988London Papers in Regional Science 19. Recent Advances in Regional Economic Modelling (Pion, London)
29.
HarriganFMcGregorP G, 1989, “Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives on the regional macro-economy: a computable general equilibrium approach”Journal of Regional Science29555–573
30.
HartogJTheeuwesJ J M, 1990, “Postwar developments in labour economics”, in Advanced Lectures on Quantitative Economics Ed. van der PloegF (Academic Press, London)
31.
HeijkeH (Ed.), 1994Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education (Kluwer, Boston, MA)
32.
HewingsG J DJensenR C, 1986, “Regional, interregional and multiregional input—output analysis”, in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. Volume I Ed. NijkampP (North-Holland, Amsterdam) pp 295–355
HinchliffeJ K, 1987, “Forecasting manpower requirements”, in Economics of Education: Research and Studies Ed. PsacharopoulusG (Pergamon Press, Oxford) pp 315–323
35.
HoldenD RSwalesJ KNairnA G M, 1987, “The repeated application of shift-share: a structural explanation of regional growth?”Environment and Planning A191233–1250
36.
HughesG, 1991Manpower Forecasting: A Review of Methods and Practice in Some OECD-Countries (FAS/ESRI, Dublin)
37.
HughesG, 1993, “Projecting the occupational structure of employment in OECD countries”, labour market and social policy occasional papers 10 (OECD, Paris)
38.
JensenR C, 1990, “Construction and use of regional input—output models: progress and prospects”International Regional Science Review139–25
39.
KapteijnAWoittiezJten HackenP, 1989Household Labor Supply in the Netherlands in the Eighties and the Nineties OSA-werkdocument W61, Organisatie voor Strategisch Arbeidsmarktonderzoek, van Stolkweg 14, 2585 JR The Hague, The Netherlands
40.
KleinL R, 1969, “The specification of regional econometric models”Papers of the Regional Science Association23105–115
41.
KnudsenD CBarffR, 1991, “Shift—share analysis as a linear model”Environment and Planning A23421–431
42.
KokLde NeubourgC, 1986Projecting Labour Supply Methods, Theory and Research: An International Comparison OSA-Werkdocument W20, Organisatie voor Strategisch Arbeidsmarktonderzoek, van Stolkweg 14, 2585 JR The Hague, The Netherlands
43.
KurreJ AWellerB R, 1989, “Forecasting the local economy, using time-series and shift—share techniques”Environment and Planning A21753–770
44.
KwaakA, 1985REGAMBEV: Een Model voor de Provinciale Ontwikkeling van Arbeidsmarkt en Bevolking in Nederland Centraal Planbureau onderzoeksmemoranda nr 8, Centraal Planbureau, van Stolkweg 14, 2585 JR The Hague, The Netherlands
45.
LindleyR, 1994, “A perspective on IER forecasting activities”, in Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education Ed. HeijkeH (Kluwer, Boston, MA) pp 167–179
46.
MaddenM, 1985, “Demographic-economic analysis in a multi-zonal region: a case study of Nordrhein-Westfalen”Regional Science and Urban Economics15517–540
47.
MaddenMAnselinL (Eds), 1990New Directions in Regional Analysis (Belhaven Press, London)
MolleWBoeckhoutSVolleringA, 1987, “The RESPONS model: an operational two-level regional economic model for the Netherlands”Regional Studies21107–120
50.
MoulaertF, 1987, “An institutional revisit to the Storper—Walker theory of labour”International Journal of Urban and Regional Research11309–330
51.
NatzijlHWestraP, 1993RAMONA, een Regionaal Arbeidsmarkt-model voor de Arbeidsvoorziening OAV-werkdocument 93-10, Centraal Bestuur voor de Arbeidsvoorziening, PO Box 415, 2280 AK Rijswijk, The Netherlands
52.
NEI, 1993Regional Labour Force Scenarios for the European Economic Area: Part I: The European CommunityNetherlands Economic Institute and Economic Geography Institute of the Erasmus University, Rotterdam
53.
NijkampP (Ed.), 1986Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. Volume I: Regional Economics (North-Holland and Elsevier, Amsterdam)
54.
OomsI LVermeulenM J M, 1991Ruimtelijke Aspecten van Substitutie op de Arbeidsmarkt, een Aanzet tot ModelontwikkelingInstituut voor Ruimtelijke Organisatie—Toegepast, Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek, PO Box 6041, 2600 JA Delft, The Netherlands
55.
OosterhavenJ, 1984, “A family of square and rectangular interregional input—output models”Regional Science and Urban Economics14565–582
56.
OteroJ MMartinGTrujilloFFernándezA, 1992, “Population, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: prospects for 1993”International Journal of Forecasting7483–492
57.
PattersonM G, 1991, “A note on the formulation of a full-analogue regression model of the shift-share method”Journal of Regional Science31211–216
58.
PeckJ, 1992, “Labor and agglomeration: control and flexibility in local labor markets”Economic Geography68325–347
59.
PeckJ, 1993, “Tales of the unexpected: a polemic against employment forecasting”Regional Studies2773–75
60.
PfannG, 1990Dynamic Modelling of Stochastic Demand for Manufacturing Employment (Springer, Berlin)
61.
RajanAPearsonR (Eds), 1986UK Occupation and Employment Trends to 1990: An Employer-based Study of the Trends and Their Underlying Causes Institute of Manpower Studies (Butterworth, Sevenoaks, Kent)
62.
SchubertU, 1982, “The development of multi-regional economic models in Western Europe”, in Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics 9. Multiregional Economic Modeling: Practice and Prospect Eds IssaevBNijkampPRietveldPSnickarsF (North-Holland, Amsterdam) pp 99–109
63.
SpennerK T, 1985, “The upgrading and downgrading of occupations”Review of Educational Research55125–154
64.
StelderT M, 1991, “Een nieuwe versie van het integraal sectorstructuur- en arbeidsmarkt-model”, Onderzoeksmemorandum 451, Instituut voor Economisch Onderzoek, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Rijsuniversiteit Groningen, Groningen
65.
StelderT M, 1994, “Simultaneous i—o models: an alternative treatment of endogenous investment”, paper presented at the 34th European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Groningen, 23–26 August; copy available from the author
66.
StoneR, 1971Demographic Accounting and Model-building (OECD, Paris)
67.
TeulingsCKoopmanschapM, 1989, “An econometric model of crowding out of lower educational levels”European Economic Review331633–1664
68.
TieboutC M, 1969, “An empirical regional input—output projection model: the state of Washington, 1980”Review of Economics and Statistics51334–340
69.
TreyzG I, 1993Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis (Kluwer, Boston, MA)
70.
TylerPRhodesJ, 1989, “A model with which to forecast employment and population change at the regional and sub-regional level”, in Advances in Regional Demography: Information, Forecasts, Models Eds CongdonPBateyP (Belhaven Press, London) pp 124–149
71.
van den BoerM, 1988“Unemployment, employment and forecasting models: the Belgian experience”, in Employment Forecasting: The Employment Problem in Industrialized Countries Ed. HopkinsM J D (Frances Pinter, London) pp 78–102
72.
van der KnaapG Avan GeenhuizenM, 1990, “A longitudinal analysis of the growth of firms”, in Technological Change in a Spatial Context Eds CiciottiEAldermanNThwaitesA (Springer, Berlin) pp 167–191
73.
van der KnaapG Avan der LaanL, 1989, “Spatial implications of unionisation, employment and labour activism”, in Labour, Environment and Industrial Change Eds LingeG J Rvan der KnaapG A (Routledge, London) pp 144–166
74.
van der LaanL, 1991Spatial Labour Markets (Eburon, Delft)
75.
van der LaanLVermeulenM, 1994, “Substitution and regional labour markets”, paper presented at the EALE-Warsaw Conference, 22–25 September: copy available from the author
76.
van der LaanLScholtenHvan der KnaapG A, 1990Structuur en Dynamiek van de (Actieve) Regionale BeroepsbevolkingEconomisch-Geografisch Instituut EUR, Rotterdam
77.
van der MeerP, 1993Verdringing op de Nederlandse Arbeidsmarkt Dissertation, Interuniversity Center for Social Science Theory and Methodology, Groningen
78.
van der PloegJ D, 1992, “The reconstitution of locality: technology and labour in modern agriculture”, in Labour and Locality, Uneven Development and the Rural Labour Process Ed. MarsdenT (David Fulton Publishers, London) pp 19–43
79.
van der PloegJ D, 1993, “Rural sociology and the new agrarian question: a perspective from the Netherlands”Sociologia Ruralis33240–260
80.
van der PloegJ D, 1994, “Agricultural production and employment: differential practices and perspectives”, in The Functioning of Economy and Labour Market in a Peripheral Region—The Case of Friesland Eds VerhaarC H Ade KlaverP M (Fryske Academy, Doelstraat 8, 8911 DX Leeuwarden, The Netherlands) pp 68–92
81.
van DijkJ, 1986Migratie en Arbeidsmarkt (Van Gorcum, Assen)
82.
van DijkJOosterhavenJ, 1986, “Regional impacts of migrants' expenditures: an input—output/vacancy-chain approach”, in London Papers in Regional Science 15. Integrated Analysis of Regional Systems Eds BateyP WMaddenM (Pion, London) pp 122–147
83.
van HaselenHHolsM, 1991RESEDA, een Projectiemodel voor Sociaal-Economische Gegevens ten Behoeve van VerkeersonderzoekNetherlands Economic Institute, PO Box 4175, 3006 AD Rotterdam, The Netherlands
84.
van HoofJ, 1987De Arbeidsmarkt als Arena (Socialistische Uitgeverij Amsterdam, Amsterdam)
85.
van WissenLEkamperP, 1995, “A model of spatial dynamics in the population of firms”, in Recent Developments in Spatial Information, Modelling and Processing Eds FisherM MSikosTBassaL (Geomarket, Budapest) pp 218–247
86.
WallisK F (Ed.), 1987Models of the UK Economy: A Fourth Review by the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau (Oxford University Press, Oxford)
87.
WilsonR A, 1992, “Modelling and forecasting the structure of employment in the UK”, paper presented at the fifth anniversary Symposium, 8 May, ROA unpublished paper; copy available from the author