Shift-share analysis continues to be popular among geographers, regional scientists, and planners despite widespread criticism of the method. In this paper, it is argued that insufficient attention has been paid to model-based approaches to shift—share analysis. It is shown that conventional shift—share and stochastic shift—share yield identical conclusions. Stochastic shift—share is easily extended dynamically and along the lines suggested by Arcelus. Thus, in the stochastic models several of the most persistent criticisms of the technique are addressed by allowing for testing of hypotheses, while preserving the practicality of the conventional accounting approach. It is suggested that stochastic shift—share should be used whenever practical.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ArcelusFJ, 1984, “An extension of shift-share analysis”Growth and Change153–8
2.
BarffRAKnightPLIII, 1988a, “Dynamic shift-share analysis”Growth and Change191–10
3.
BarffRAKnightPLIII, 1988b, “The role of federal military spending in the timing of the New England employment turnaround”Papers of the Regional Science Association65151–166
4.
BaxterM, 1982, “Similarities in methods of estimating spatial interaction models”Geographical Analysis14267–272
5.
BaxterM, 1984, “A note on the estimation of a nonlinear migration model using GLIM”Geographical Analysis16282–286
6.
BerzegK, 1978, “The empirical content of shift-share analysis”Journal of Regional Science18463–469
7.
BerzegK, 1984, “A note on statistical approaches to shift-share analysis”Journal of Regional Science24277–285
8.
BrownHJ, 1969, “Shift—share projections of regional growth: An empirical test”Journal of Regional Science91–18
9.
BrowneLE, 1977, “The impact of industry mix on New England's economic growth since 1950”New England Economic Indicators (April) 3–7, 33
10.
BuckTW, 1970, “Shift—share analysis: A guide to regional policy?”Regional Studies4445–450
11.
CaslerSD, 1989, “A theoretical context for shift and share analysis”Regional Studies2343–48
FlowerdewRLovettA, 1989, “Compound and generalized Poisson models for interurban migration”, in Advances in Regional Demography Eds CongdonPBateyP (Belhaven Press, London) pp 246–256
19.
FothergillSGudginG, 1979, “In defense of shift-share”Urban Studies16309–319
20.
HarrisonBKluverJ, 1989, “Reassessing the ‘Massachusetts miracle’: Reindustrialization and balanced growth, or convergence to ‘Manhattanization’?”Environment and Planning A21771–801
21.
HaynesKEMachundaZB, 1987, “Considerations in extending shift-share analysis”Growth and Change1869–78
22.
HaynesKEMachundaZB, 1988, “Decomposition of change in spatial employment concentration: An information—theoretic extension of shift—share analysis”Papers of the Regional Science Association65101–113
23.
HaynesKEPhillipsFY, 1982, “Constrained minimum discrimination information: A unifying tool for modeling spatial and individual choice behavior”Environment and Planning A141341–1354
24.
HellmanDA, 1976, “Shift—share models as predictive tools”Growth and Change7(3) 3–8
25.
HoldenDRSwalesJKNairnAGM, 1987, “The repeated application of shift-share: A structural explanation of regional growth?”Environment and Planning A191233–1250
26.
HoustonDB, 1967, “The shift and share analysis of regional growth: A critique”Southern Economic Journal33577–581
27.
JacksonGMasnickGBoltonRBartlettSPitkinJ, 1981Regional Diversity: Growth in the United States, 1960–1990 (Auburn House, Boston, MA)
28.
KullbackSLeiblerRA, 1951, “On information and sufficiency”Annals of Mathematical Statistics2278–86
29.
KurreJAWellerBR, 1989, “Forecasting the local economy, using time-series and shift—share techniques”Environment and Planning A21753–770
30.
LeverWF, 1981, “The inner-city employment problem in Great Britain, 1952–76: A shift—share approach”, in Industrial Location and Regional Systems Eds ReesJHewingsGJDStaffordHA (J F Bergin, New York) pp 171–196
31.
LovettAFlowerdewR, 1989, “Analysis of count data using Poisson regression”Professional Geographer41190–198
32.
LovettAWhyteIDWhyteKA, 1985, “Poisson regression analysis and migration fields: The example of the apprenticeship records of Edinburgh in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries”Transactions, Institute of British Geographers: New Series10317–332
33.
McCullaghPNelderJA, 1983Generalized Linear Models (Chapman and Hall, Andover, Hants)
34.
MarkusenARCarlsonV, 1989, “Deindustrialization in the American Midwest: Causes and responses”, in Deindustrialization and Regional Transformation: The Experience of the United States Eds RodwinLSazanamiH (Unwin Hyman, Winchester, MA) pp 29–59
PhillipsFY, 1981A Guide to MDI Statistics for Planning and Management Model-building (Institute for Constructive Capitalism, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712)
37.
PlaneDA, 1987, “The geographic components of change in a migration system”Geographical Analysis19283–299
38.
PlaneDARogersonP, 1989, “U.S. migration pattern responses to the oil glut and recession of the early 1980s: An application of shift-share and causative matrix techniques”, in Advances in Regional Demography Eds CongdonPBateyP (Belhaven Press, London) pp 386–414
39.
RichardsonHW, 1978, “The state of regional economics: A survey article”International Regional Science Review31–48
40.
ShermanHJ, 1986, “Changes in the character of the U.S. business cycle”Review of Radical Political Economics18190–204
41.
StevensBHMooreCL, 1980, “A critical review of the shift-share as a forecasting technique”Journal of Regional Science20419–437
42.
StillwellFJB, 1970, “Further thoughts on the shift and share approach”Regional Studies4451–458
43.
TheilHGoshR, 1980, “A comparison of shift—share and the RAS adjustment”Regional Science and Urban Economics10175–180
44.
ThirlwallAP, 1967, “A measure of the proper distribution of industry”Oxford Economic Papers1946–58
45.
WilsonAG, 1970Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling (Pion, London)
