A Methodological Note on the Use of Regression Equations for the Purpose of Simulating Change in Urban Location Patterns

Abstract

Econometric models are often used to simulate the effects of changes in an economy by altering the value(s) of some independent variable(s). It is shown in this paper that although this technique is usual in the study of nonspatial economies, the same methods used in urban spatial modelling may merely result in predictions which are due more to the properties of regression than to those of the urban economy. Work done by Kain and by Granfield in which they attempt to simulate racial desegregation is used to exemplify the argument.