Abstract
This article builds on the work of Greenidge, employing structural time series model (STSM) to explain and forecast quarterly tourist flows from Barbados' primary source markets — the USA, the United Kingdom, Canada and CARICOM — for the period 1966:1-2007:4. Results show that the structure and nature of the individual time series components have evolved significantly since the work of Greenidge. Of particular interest, arrivals from the main source markets appear to be less income sensitive. The study also investigates the predictive power of STSM. A seasonal naive model is used for benchmark comparison purposes. We find that STSM outperforms the seasonal naive model in its both multivariate and univariate form.
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