We describe methods to project the requirement for nursing home beds in Manitoba until 2020. Three methods were developed: Trend, Recent Use, and Combined. The first two methods yielded widely divergent projections, differing by 3,400 beds. Stakeholder feedback and theoretical analysis suggested the third (Combined) method, the arithmetic mean of the first two. Model testing found the Combined method to be the most accurate. The projections have been used by RHAs for their planning activities.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
RoosNPShapiroEBondRBlackCFinlaysonGNewburn-CookC. Changes in health and health care use of Manitobans: 1985–1998. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Center for Health Policy; 2001.
2.
MenecVHMacWilliamLSoodeenRMitchellL. The health and health care use of Manitoba's seniors: Have they changed over time?Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Center for Health Policy; 2002.
3.
AlarconTBarcenaAGonzalez-MontalvoJIPenalosaCSalgadoA. Factors predictive of outcome on admission to an acute geriatric ward. Age Ageing1999; 28(5): 429–32.
4.
JetteAMBranchLGSleeperLAFeldmanHSullivanLM. High-risk profiles for nursing home admission. Gerontologist1992; 32(5): 634–40.
5.
OsterweilDMartinMSyndulkoK. Predictors of skilled nursing placement in a multilevel long-term-care facility. Journal of the American Geriatric Society1995; 43(2): 108–112.
6.
SteinbachU. Social networks, institutionalization, and mortality among elderly people in the United States. Journal of Gerontology1992; 47(4): S183–S190.
7.
TomiakMBerthelotJMGuimondEMustardCA. Factors associated with nursing-home entry for elders in Manitoba, Canada. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci2000; 55(5): M279–M287.
8.
RoosNPStrancLPetersonSMitchellLBogdanovicBShapiroE. A look at home care in Manitoba. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Center for Health Policy; 2001.
9.
Health Services Utilization and Research Commission.The Impact of Preventive Home Care and Seniors Housing on Health Outcomes. Saskatoon, SK: The Commission; 2000.
10.
CarstairsVMorrisR. Deprivation and health in Scotland. Aberdeen, Scotland: Aberdeen University Press; 1991.
11.
EylesJBirchSChambersSHurleyJHutchinsonB. A needs-based methodology for allocating health care resources in Ontario, Canada: Development and application. Soc Sci Med1991; 33(4): 489–500.
