Abstract
2012 marked the tenth anniversary of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) rise to power, during which Turkey has witnessed multiple transformations. Most importantly, Turkey has experienced an economic boom, boosting its self-confidence as a regional power. Given Europe's current crisis, Turkey is, in one sense, a more attractive partner for the EU than ever before. Yet the likelihood of Turkish membership of the EU also appears to be more distant than ever. The atmosphere of hope that surrounded the first few years of the AKP's tenure, when it initiated comprehensive EU harmonisation reforms and began negotiations for membership, has been followed by one of despair. The accession process is all but frozen, and while support for Turkish membership has continued to fall in Europe, ever fewer Turks now appear to view EU membership as either likely or desirable.
The AKP's record suggests that Turkey's political development is intimately linked to its relationship with Europe. Domestically, its reform agenda has faltered as leading European politicians have spoken out against Turkish EU membership on civilisational grounds. As Turkey has become more alienated from Europe, the liberal and democratic forces and instincts within the AKP-and in Turkish society in general- have gradually given way to the increasingly authoritarian tendencies which dominate today. Similarly, in foreign policy, Turkey has chartered an increasingly independent course, which has frequently put it at odds with European interests and positions. Indeed, Turkey is increasingly a partner that will align with Europe and the US on the basis of common interests rather than common values.
The experience of the past several years has shown that a Turkey decoupled from Europe is likely to be more turbulent and unstable domestically, with the capacity to undermine or uphold European interests in a wide range of areas. This is exactly why European leaders should re-engage Turkey, and seek to develop a broad and long-term policy to keep Turkey anchored in Europe. Only such a policy–-difficult as it may be–-will make Turkey more democratic and stable in the long run, while ensuring that Turkish foreign and security policies align with European interests.
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