The Black Dropout Rate and the Black Youth Unemployment Rate: A Granger-Causal Analysis

Abstract

The high unemployment rate of black high school graduates can create the perception that a diploma is of little value and encourage dropping-out of school. Black youth who do drop out are less employable and further push up the black youth unemployment rate. This raises a question: Is the high dropout rate of black youth due to their high unemployment rate or is their high unemployment rate due to their high dropout rate? A study of this question using the definition of Granger-causality finds that it is the high unemployment rate which causes the high dropout rate rather than the opposite.