The cumulative proportion of responses over time from direct response advertising is shown to be a decaying exponential curve. This study analyzes response curves from nine direct response ads in weekly and monthly magazines and customer mailings. The implications of using the two parameters of the decaying exponential equation for forecasting responses is discussed along with a modeling strategy for future direct marketing research.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BakerJ.W.Prediction of Direct Marketing Campaign ResultsJournal of Systems Management35198422–24November
2.
BartholomewD.J.Continuous Time Diffusion Models with Random Duration of InterestJournal of Mathematical Sociology41976187–199
3.
Bauer, Connie L. (1982), “The Rate of Interactive Information Diffusion,” unpublished dissertation, Michigan State University.
4.
ColemanJames S.Introduction to Mathematical Sociology1964The Fee Press of GlencoeNew York
5.
ColemanJames S.KatzE.MenzelH.The Diffusion of an Innovation Among PhysiciansSociometry201957253–270
6.
DanielCuthbertWoodFred S.Fitting Equations to Data1971John Wiley & SonsNew York
7.
DoddStuart C.Diffusion is Predictable: Testing Probability Models for Laws of InteractionAmerican Sociological Review201955392–401
8.
GentNewtA Measure of Advertising EffectivenessCoxKeithEnisBen M.A New Measure of Responsibility for Marketing1968American Marketing AssociationChicago199–203
9.
HamblinRobert L.JacobsenR.B.MillerJerry L.L.A Mathematical Theory of Social Change1973John Wiley & SonsNew York
10.
HarperRoseMailing List Strategies1986McGraw-HillNew York
11.
HodgsonRichard S.The Dartnell Direct Mail and Mail Order Handbook3rd ed.1980The Dartnell CorporationChicago
12.
HuxleyStephen J.Predicting Response Speed in Mail SurveysJournal of Marketing Research17198063–68February
13.
KellyRobert F.The Diffusion Model as a Predictor of Ultimate Patronage Levels in New Retail OutletsHaasRaymond M.Science, Technology, & Marketing1966American Marketing AssociationChicago
14.
KestnbaumRobert D.Cost Per Response and Evaluation ResultsDillonJohnHandbook of International Direct Marketing1976McGraw-HillNew York
15.
LaveCharles A.MarchJames G.An Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences1975Harper & RowNew York
16.
MahajanVijayPetersonRobert A.Models for Innovation Diffusion, Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-0481985Sage PublicationsBeverly Hills
17.
ParasuramanA.More on the Prediction of Mail Survey Response RatesJournal of Marketing Research191982261–268May
18.
SimonJulian L.ArndtJohanThe Shape of the Advertising Response FunctionJournal of Advertising Research204198011–28
19.
SorensenAage B.Mathematical Models in SociologyAnnual Review of Sociology41978345-171
20.
SpaulderPeterBasics of Media PlanningNashEdward L.The Direct Marketing Handbook1984McGraw-HillNew York195–209
21.
StoneBobSuccessful Direct Marketing Methods1984Crain BooksChicago