In assessing the chances and dangers which exist on the way to a globally sustainable economic system which would provide the basis for a decent living for a population of the magnitude of about 9 to 10 billion people, one cannot deny the tremendous progress mankind made during the last twenty five years. But precisely because such positive developments cannot be expected to last for ever, the question was posed by many social and natural scientists whether, and for how long the carrying capacity of our planet can withstand such “progress”.

In this paper, facts are presented which show that limits are not so much in the area of physical factors, e.g. energy and resources, but rather in our ability to learn and to absorb the speed of technological change, both in psychological and in political terms. Thus the problems we are confronted with are neither of a purely physical nor of a purely economical nature. From a wider perspective, it becomes obvious that man is involved in three interrelated conflicts. He is:

in conflict with nature (environment),

in conflict with his fellow men (war), and

in conflict with himself (identity between the inner and outer world).

The factors influencing our chances to achieve a situation which is sustainable and socially acceptable as well, have at least three dimensions:

a dimension of evolutionary history,

a scientific or technological, and

an economico-political dimension.

It is shown that in terms of the time dimensions involved in evolution, the increase of world population occurred in an extremely short period. Therefore, we are right in describing this phenomenon as an “explosion”. The changes connected to the population explosion – agglomerations, new infrastructures, mobility etc., – imposed a great stress upon our psyche. Uncertainty and anxiety gradually changed our behaviour. More and more people tended to blame each other for the “catastrophes” to come. In such an atmosphere of uncertainty, knowledge about the time scale is essential. The time scales of ecological processes differs by magnitudes from the time scale of political processes. A deeper understanding of the underlying processes shows that we do not “consume” energy, but rather transfer high grade energy into waste heat. (Second Law of Thermodynamics). Similarly, we do not “consume” resources, but rather change a given concentration and composition of elements in a way which suits the present purposes. Hence we “consume” state of orders and not matter (law of conservation). These technical transformations require energy and knowledge. The more efficiently we use energy, the better the “eco-efficiency” – a concept which is explained in the article.

It is shown that the key positive factor in achieving any kind of sustainability is knowledge and the key negative factor is further population growth. Hence, if we want to achieve a morally and materially sustainable future we must break the vicious circle of on-going population growth, more poverty, less chances to learn, more violence, more population growth, and so on.

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Studies of Breaking-Stress Distributions

Energy - The Key to an Ecologically Sustainable Development⊗