23:T47c,

Predicting the discovery rate and marginal finding costs of natural gas resources requires a well-documented and long statistical history. For partially explored basins, the statistical history is often inadequate. Attempts at avoiding the problem have been made using probabilistic modelling approaches. These are used to estimate the parent population of pools available for discovery and the probable discovery rate. The phenomenon of economic truncation, however, calls into question the precision and utility of such estimates. Furthermore, the exploration process is known to be biased toward larger pools, but no method of determining the extent of the bias has been discussed in the literature to date. To avoid these deficiencies, this paper employs the pool size distribution estimates routinely produced by geologists to drive a probabilistic modelling framework taking explicit account of the physical laws of resource depletion. The methodology is discussed and applied to Canada’s Scotian Shelf. In order to put the predicted costs for the Scotian Shelf in perspective, the results are then compared to forecasts for Alberta.

24:T4a8,

The continental margin of eastern Canada is underlain by a series of Mesozoic-Cenozoic sedimentary basins that have been targets of active hydrocarbon exploration for over two decades. Data from approximately 170 released exploratory wells and about 600 000 km of multichannel seismic coverage have delineated three major geological/geochemical regions. On the Scotian Shelf, 18 significant (predominantly gas/condensate) discoveries have been made out of 78 wildcats drilled since 1967. Seven of these, including the Venture field, are in an overpressured zone that has been explored extensively only since 1979. The 61 wildcat wells drilled on the Grand Banks through mid-1985 have yielded 13 significant (predominantly light oil) discoveries, including the giant Hibernia oil field. Labrador-Southeast Baffin Shelf exploration has yielded six gas/condensate discoveries in 24 wildcat wells drilled since 1971. As petroleum exploration is still at an early stage off eastern Canada these results represent an auspicious beginning.

Search results

Predicting the Discoveries and Finding Costs of Natural Gas: the Example of the Scotian Shelf *

Offshore Geology and Petroleum Potential of Eastern Canada